The Ditch List: Three Shortstops That Owners Can Move On From (Swanson & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It’s easy to become infatuated with a player, looking past the obvious faults and trying to find a silver lining.  While it’s easier to do with young players with upside, it could happen with any player.  One position that is littered with potentially over-hyped players is shortstop, so let’s take a look at a few player you can likely move on from:

Dansby Swanson – Atlanta Braves
.174 (21-121), 2 HR, 9 RBI, 11 R, 1 SB

We all knew he wasn’t going to match the .302 average he posted in 145 PA in the Majors last season, and his .383 BABIP was reason enough.  The hope had been that he’d improve his strikeout rate (23.4%) to help compensate a little bit, but instead it’s taken a step in the other direction (25.7%).  His SwStr% has jumped up to 12.0% and he’s struggled to make consistent contact against every type of pitch (Whiff%):

• Hard – 11.61%
• Breaking – 13.50%
• Offspeed – 21.74%

Couple that regression with a drop in his line drive rate (19.5%) and it’s easy to see why he’s struggling.  He should improve (.224 BABIP), but he’s not going to be the .270-.280ish hitter we had envisioned without significant development.  He’s not an elite power or speed option either, so there isn’t a big reason to be buying for ’17 (though long-term is a different story).

Orlando Arcia – Milwaukee Brewers
.222 (26-117), 4 HR, 14 RBI, 16 R, 1 SB

We’ve talked about him before, and unfortunately little has changed.  He continues to hit the ball without much authority (14.1% line drive rate), and for a player without a lot power the jump in his fly ball rate is going to limit his average potential (28.7% to 39.1%).  If that weren’t enough, his command of the strike zone has been abysmal:

• SwStr% – 13.9%
• O-Swing% – 42.1%

Speed is his biggest asset, though the profile isn’t that of a leadoff hitter.  Instead he’s being used in the eighth spot, which also limits the number of opportunities he gets to run.  Is there long-term appeal?  Absolutely, but for 2017 it’s easy to move on.

Alcides Escobar – Kansas City Royals
.193 (26-135), 0 HR, 6 RBI, 9 R, 0 SB

He’s consistently been a disappointment, providing little power and failing to top 17 SB in each of the past two years.  That should make him an unusable option, but he’s recently been returned to the leadoff spot so that has to make him relevant once again…

Of course he’s hitting .226 in the leadoff spot (7 games), going 7-for-31 while failing to draw a walk.  That’s never been his strong suit (4.1% career walk rate) and for a “speed” player that’s never going to be a good sign.  Throw in that he’s consistently putting the ball in the air (42.5% fly ball rate) and there’s no reason to get excited.

His time in the leadoff spot should be short, and as he’s shown before the upside simply isn’t there.  Don’t bother, whether it’s for this season or beyond.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, CBS Sports

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