The Sell List: Three Players To Trade Immediately: Javier Baez & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Selling high on a player is often easier said than done.  Just because we see impressive numbers doesn’t mean that the rest of your league is going to buy in, based on the player’s history or the same underlying metrics that are concerning you.  That said, trying to get what you can for a player doesn’t hurt either.  With that in mind, here are three players that you should be shopping and potentially taking whatever you can get in return:

Corey Dickerson – Tampa Bay Rays
He’s coming off a 24 HR campaign and entered play on Monday hitting .304 with 6 HR.  Why would there be any concern?  Just look at the notable underlying metrics:

• BABIP – .354
• Strikeout Rate – 21.8%
• SwStr% – 15.1%
• O-Swing% – 44.4%

Considering the SwStr% and O-Swing%, does anyone believe that there’s any chance he maintains a reasonable strikeout rate?  Then you have the luck, which is nearly a guarantee to regress considering his 21.6% line drive rate (which is hardly an elite mark).

While the power is reasonable (17.6% HR/FB), that’s not enough to excite us.  With the other numbers nearly guaranteed to tumble, now is the time to try and cash in from his strong start.

Javier Baez – Chicago Cubs
While there are questions about his playing time, amazingly his approach at the plate has gotten worse in ’17 as he owns a 47.6% O-Swing% and 21.1% SwStr%.  Somehow he’s managed to keep the strikeout rate respectable, at 26.8%, but how long can that last?

The fact that he’s missing against all types of pitches at alarming rates is even more concerning (Whiff%):

• Hard – 15.09%
• Breaking – 28.07%
• Offspeed – 32.69%

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s seeing fewer and fewer hard pitches (48.77%), and that’s not going to change until he adjusts.  Look for the strikeouts to really start to pile up, and given the alternatives the playing time could disappear.  Now is the time to try and sell while someone in your league may still be willing to bite.

Avisail Garcia – Chicago White Sox
Chances are you aren’t going to be able to get much of a return for Garcia, but you never know considering the potential name appeal and his hot start (.349 with 5 HR and 24 RBI).  Nothing about the numbers are believable, which should increase the urgency to try and move on:

• Power – 29.8% fly ball rate, 20.0% HR/FB
• Average – .418 BABIP, 20.2% line drive rate
• Strikeouts – 21.4% strikeout rate, 15.7% SwStr%

With the risk of a regression coming across the board, take what you can get before the full-fledged implosion comes.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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