To Sell Or Not To Sell… How To Handle Aaron Judge & Miguel Sano

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know that young hitters can be extremely streaky, but over the first two months of the season we’ve gotten elite production from some formerly hyped prospects.  The question now is how should owners proceed:

• Do we hold, thinking the production can continue?
• Do we sell high, thinking that a significant regression is on the horizon?
• Do we buy, thinking that this is just the start?

Let’s take a look at two of the more notable early season producers and try to diagnose how we should proceed:

Miguel Sano – Minnesota Twins
2017 Statistics – .292, 12 HR, 39 RBI, 33 R, 0 SB

Sano has been a hyped player for some time, and on the surface he appears to finally be living up to it.  However once you start looking at some of the underlying metrics there are significant red flags nearly across the board:

• .461 BABIP (23.9% line drive rate)
• 38.0% Strikeout Rate (16.6% SwStr%)
• 29.3% HR/FB

Obviously there is significant concern over his ability to continue hitting for a strong average, as he’s been extremely lucky and striking out at an alarming rate.  He’s specifically been prone to swinging and missing at breaking balls (21.09% Whiff%) and offspeed pitches (26.88% Whiff%), and opposing pitchers will obviously continue to feed him a steady diet of them.  With little hope of an improvement and a near guarantee that his BABIP nose dives, his average will likely tank before long.

We all know that there is power in his bat, and while it could regress a little bit it is not completely going to disappear.  That will help to keep him relevant, but making the mistake of thinking that he’s finally “broke out” or is a must hold would be costly.  Kicking the tires and seeing what you could get for him makes plenty of sense.

Aaron Judge – New York Yankees
2017 Statistics – .319, 17 HR, 35 RBI, 38 R, 4 SB

Judge has drawn comparison to Giancarlo Stanton and maybe that’s unfair, but he’s certainly backing up the hype.  The big development has been his ability to control the strike zone, and while a 28.8% strikeout rate is nothing to brag about it’s better than what we expected (his worst Whiff% is 20.33% against offspeed pitches).

Of course, that doesn’t mean that he can maintain this type of production level:

• 42.5% HR/FB
• .385 BABIP

Power or not, he should see a regression in his HR/FB even with playing half his games in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.  That means his power is going to slow down, but it certainly isn’t going to disappear.

That slow down will hurt his average, given his likely fall in his BABIP, though even if he hits .275 with power no one is going to complain.  His willingness to run and potentially chip in 10+ SB certainly helps, and cushions the blow of the likely regression.

In other words, even in redraft formats Judge is hardly a must sell option (and we definitely wouldn’t be eager to sell in keeper leagues).  He’s not going to continue at this level, but he will continue to produce.  At the same time, if someone is willing to dramatically overpay to acquire him we wouldn’t be scared to make the move either.  It all depends on how high someone in your league is willing to pay.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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