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ACC Bubble Analysis for January 12, 2017

Friday, January 12, 2018 20:49
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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(3) Virginia (15-1) (4-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (15) Rhode Island, (78) Boston College, (99) VCU, * (7) UNC, * (28) Syracuse, (75) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – If you haven’t bought into how good Tony Bennett’s team is yet, then you need to start. They’ve earned a #1 seed this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/14 – NC State

1/18 – @Georgia Tech

(1) Duke (14-2) (2-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (20) Michigan State, (87) Evansville, * (46) Texas, (71) Utah Valley, * (35) Florida, * (48) Florida State, (61) Elon, (85) Portland State

Bad Losses – (116) NC State

Notes – Duke still struggles with defensive with consistency and took a surprising loss at NC State. Of course playing Pitt helps everything and, Duke won by 35 there. They’ll need to sweep their games this week to move back to the 1 line.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – Wake Forest

1/15 – @Miami

(7) North Carolina (13-4) (2-2) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (26) Arkansas, * (45) Michigan,* (14) Tennessee, * (22) Ohio State, (99) Tulane (78) Boston College

Bad Losses – (126) Wofford

Notes – The Heels are just an average 3-3 over their last 6 games. They are a NCAA team, but are they a top 4 seed team?

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – @Notre Dame

1/16 – Clemson

(5) Clemson (14-2) (3-1) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins –  * (22) Ohio State, * (35) Florida, (69) South Carolina, (95) Louisiana, * (23) Louisville (78) Boston College, (79) NC State, (84) Hofstra

Bad Losses – None

Notes – You see that 1/16 game at UNC? This year’s team has a chance to break the storied losing streak at North Carolina.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – Miami

1/16 – @UNC

(21) Miami (13-2) (2-1) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  (74) Minnesota, * (29) Middle Tennessee, * (48) Florida State

Bad Losses – (156) Georgia Tech

Notes – A split would be great for Miami this week. Clemson and Duke won’t be easy.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – @Clemson

1/15 – Duke

(39) Notre Dame (13-4) (3-1) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (18) Wichita State, * (28) Syracuse, (57) LSU, (79) NC State

Bad Losses – (106) Indiana, * (156) Georgia Tech

Notes – Notre Dame is trying to hold things together with the loss of Bonzi Colson. A couple of big home games are this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – North Carolina

1/16 – Louisville

(48) Florida State (12-4) (1-3) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (35) Florida, (98) Tulane, * (7) UNC

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Florida State is trending in the wrong direction. A sweep would be advisable this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – Syracuse

1/15 – @Boston College

(23) Louisville (12-4) (2-1) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  (48) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Where did that win at Florida State come from? That was massive, and could change the outlook on Louisville’s season.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – Virginia Tech

1/16 – @Notre Dame

Bubble But In

(79) NC State (12-5) (2-2) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (24) Arizona, * (1) Duke, * (5) Clemson

Bad Losses – (105) UNC-Greensboro, (147) Northern Iowa

Notes – NC State just beat Duke and Clemson in back to back games. That gets NC State back on the bubble. A split this week will keep them in the field.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/14 – @UVA

1/18 – Wake Forest

(75) Virginia Tech (13-4) (2-2) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (41) Washington, (91) Radford

Bad Losses – * (198) St. Louis

Notes – Virginia Tech is barely in the field this week. They need to get some more quality wins.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – @Louisville

Bubble But Out 

(28) Syracuse (12-5) (1-3) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (30) Buffalo, * (50) Maryland, (75) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – (130) Wake Forest

Notes – Syracuse has lost 3 games in row. They need to get things back on track.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – @FSU

1/16 – Pittsburgh

(78) Boston College (11-6) (2-3)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – None

Notes – That Duke win only going to carry BC so far. This is an important week to win both games.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – Dartmouth

1/15 – Florida State

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(130) Wake Forest (8-8) (1-3) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (28) Syracuse

Bad Losses – * (236) Liberty, (141) Drake, (129) Georgia Southern

Notes – Wake Forest is likely to fall to 1-5 in the ACC after this week. The season outlook is not looking good for Danny Manning’s bunch.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – @Duke

1/18 – @NC State

(144) Pittsburgh (8-9) (0-4)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (92) Santa Barbara

Bad Losses – * (204) Navy, (122) Penn State, (142) Montanta

Notes – Anyone have any faith Kevin Stallings can start turning Pitt around? I didn’t think so.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – Georgia Tech

1/16 – @Syracuse

(156) Georgia Tech (9-7) (2-1)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (88) Northwestern, (21) Miami, (39) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – * (298) Grambling, (128) Wofford

Notes – Georgia Tech has suddenly won three games in a row. Oh if they get sweep this week, that’s the bubble in the distance.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/13 – @Pitt

1/18 – Virginia

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Source: http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2018/01/12/acc-bubble-analysis-for-january-12-2017-2/

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