Profile image
By Roto Professor - Baseball
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Now:
Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:
Total:

Buy Low/Sell High Candidates: Do Inflated Groundball Rates Create Cause For Concern (Benintendi, Schwarber & More)

Monday, April 16, 2018 10:01
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Entering play on Saturday there were eight hitters who had a groundball rate of 60% or greater, and some of the names may surprise you.  It gets even more surprising when we look at #9 on the list, who fell just short of 60% but not by much.  Obviously there are names that we are happy to see included, like Billy Hamilton and Orlando Arcia.  Those are players who don’t have much power, and instead should be focusing on putting the ball on the ground and utilizing their speed to get on base.

It’s the power hitters that are going to grab our attention, because how many home runs can they hit when they are driving the ball into the ground instead of putting it in the air?  With that in mind, let’s take a quick look at the Top 10:

Ranking
Player
Team
GB%
1. Stephen Piscotty Oakland A’s 69.2%
2. Ian Desmond Colorado Rockies 67.6%
3. Billy Hamilton Cincinnati Reds 66.7%
4. Cesar Hernandez Philadelphia Phillies 63.0%
5t. Orlando Arcia Milwaukee Brewers 62.9%
5t. Lewis Brinson Miami Marlins 62.9%
7. Andrew Benintendi Boston Red Sox 60.5%
8. Yolmer Sanchez Chicago White Sox 60.0%
9. Kyle Schwarber Chicago Cubs 59.3%
10. Ryan Flaherty Atlanta Braves 58.6%

Outlook:

Kyle Schwarber
The concern for Schwarber is supposed to be based on his strikeout rate, not his groundball rate.  Don’t get us wrong, he is racking up the strikeouts (30.4% courtesy of a 14.2% SwStr%), and he’s never shown this type of elevated groundball rate before (40.5%).  Chances are this is nothing more than a small sample size outlier, but it’s something to keep in mind.

The strikeouts aren’t going anywhere, but as groundballs shift to fly balls (25.9% vs. career mark of 43.6%) his BABIP will likely plummet.  Currently maintaining a pedestrian .292 BABIP, leading to a .244 average, he’ll need a big boost in power in order to maintain even that mark.  Considering his 24.0% HR/FB led to a .211 average last season, there’s cause for concern.

Verdict – Moderately Concerning

Andrew Benintendi
He’s not a big-time power hitter, but that doesn’t change the concern.  However it looks like he’s simply trying to find himself at the play, with a minuscule 10.5% Hard% and 22.2% popup rate.  Neither of those numbers are likely to continue, and as he’s showing a tremendous approach (4.0% SwStr%, 27.2% O-Swing%) this may represent the best time to try and buy low.  He continues to maintain 20/20 talent and when he starts barreling up the baseball he’ll emerge as one of the best in the game.  Kick the tires and see if you have an opportunity to grab him for less than full price from a frustrated owner.

Verdict – No Concern (Buy Low if possible)

Ian Desmond
Desmond has a history of elevated groundball rates (51.6%), though this seems extreme.  At the same time he was at 62.7% last season, and while we wanted to attribute that to the wrist injury it’s possible there’s more too it.  He’s shown power thus far (3 HR in 51 AB), but it’s come courtesy of a 37.5% HR/FB.  We all know that’s not going to continue, and with his approach also off (15.3% SwStr%, 40.2% O-Swing%) the concerns only grow.  No one is about to say that he can’t turn it around (specifically the approach), but after last year’s groundball rate there are reasons to question the power potential.  Without that and with playing time not a guarantee, Desmond may be a prime sell candidate.

Verdict – Highly Concerning (Sell if the price is right)

Stephen Piscotty
His name doesn’t hold the same appeal as the others, but the hope was he’d provide power to the middle of Oakland’s lineup.  That’s not going to happen with this type of number, and without elite speed what exactly does he bring?  There were already questions about the groundball rate, after he posted a 49.2% mark last season, and barring a significant change the results simply won’t be there.

Verdict – Highly Concerning

Source – Fangraphs

Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings?  Make sure to check it out by clicking here.  



Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=35602

We encourage you to Share our Reports, Analyses, Breaking News and Videos. Simply Click your Favorite Social Media Button and Share.

Report abuse

Comments

Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories
 

Featured

Top Global

Top Alternative

Register

Newsletter

Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.