Believer or Deceiver: Are We Buying Into These Youngsters (Brandon Nimmo & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Strong stats are nice to see, but as we all know what we see on the surface doesn’t necessarily tell the entire story.  Should we be believing in these players or should we being extracting as much value as we think we can before cutting bait and moving on?  Let’s take a look at a few intriguing names and how we should proceed (all stats are through Sunday, unless otherwise noted):

Brandon Nimmo – New York Mets – Outfielder
It wasn’t long ago that Nimmo was considered a first round bust, but he’s taken advantage of an opportunity and may finally be breaking out.  Settling in atop the Mets’ batting order he’s slashing .274/.425/.526 over 120 PA and the best could be yet to come.

How is that possible for a player who would be among the Top 5 in OBP if he had enough plate appearances to qualify (along with Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge)?  He’s shown an ability to hit the ball hard, with a 40.3% Hard%, and with his speed he could maintain his .349 BABIP.  He also has shown a great eye at the plate, and you would think that he should be able to improve upon his 23.3% strikeout rate based on these numbers:

• SwStr% – 8.8%
• O-Swing% – 21.7%

There is a question as to whether or not he’s a platoon player, as he’s struggled against southpaws (.174 average), but he’s not that far removed from hitting .358 against them over 120 AB (a feat he accomplished at Double-A in ’16).  That gives hope, and as he continues to tap into his power (14 doubles, 4 triples and 4 HR) and gets more comfortable and gains more freedom on the basepaths we could see him really put things together.

The potential is still there for a .290/15/15 player, with the upside of a little more than that.  The breakout is coming, so you want to jump on board now before it’s too late.  While we may also want to point towards uncertain playing time as a reason to stay away, there are ways for the Mets to manipulate things even once Yoenis Cespedes returns (Jay Bruce could shift to first base, or even land on the DL due to plantar fasciitis).

Verdict – Believer

Jeimer Candelario – Detroit Tigers – Third Baseman
A prized acquisition from the Cubs a year ago, Candelario is off the DL and ready to show that he’s ready to live up to the hype.  Currently hitting .272 with 7 HR and 20 RBI over 180 PA, the key to his development has been:

1. A dramatic drop in his SwStr% (12.5% in ’17 to 8.4%)
2. Nearly doubling his HR/FB (8.6% to 16.3%)

His improvement in the strikeout rate comes as he’s making better contact against both breaking balls (Whiff% has gone from 21.55% to 13.69%) and offspeed pitches (20.99% to 12.12%).  With that type of improvement it’s easy to get excited.

As for the power there were signs of it coming, with 45 doubles, 4 triples and 18 HR between Triple-A and the Majors last season.  Plus, at 24-years old it’s easy to envision the development/growth as being for real.

Settled into the middle of the Tigers’ lineup, don’t make the mistake of overlooking his upside.

Verdict – Believer

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, MILB.com

Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings?  Make sure to check it out by clicking here.