Profile image
By Roto Professor - Baseball
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Now:
Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:
Total:

Give Up On Paul Goldchmidt? Don’t Be So Hasty…

Wednesday, May 16, 2018 11:42
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Paul Goldschmidt entered the year considered a Top 5 player, but we are now about a month and a half into the season and things look dramatically different.  Entering play on Monday he was hitting .210 with 4 HR and 12 RBI over 171 PA (before going 1-4 with 1 R), with the concerns beginning to grow significantly.  Could the humidor, which was viewed as a positive for the pitching staff, be having this much of a negative effect on one of the premier sluggers in the game?

His Home/Road split would seem to support that notion:

  • Home – .133, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 9 R
  • Road – .294, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 16 R

Of course he’s also hitting the ball extremely hard at home (27.9% line drive rate) and suffering from terrible luck (.233 BABIP).  Does anyone really believe those numbers?  Historically it’s not like his production has simply been buoyed by his home ballpark, with the numbers nearly split evenly:

  • Home – .292, 87 HR, 306 RBI (491 games)
  • Road – .298, 93 HR, 333 RBI (481 games)

The bigger issue is the sudden increase in strikeouts, as he owns an 11.5% SwStr% (his worst mark since an 11.9% in ’11, his 48 game debut) and 31.0% strikeout rate (22.4% for his career).  Maybe he’s pressing, but he’s seen an increase in his Whiff% across the board.  The most concerning is on “Hard” pitches, going from 9.46% in ’17 to 11.34% this season.  While it’s not an abysmal mark, has his bat slowed a little bit?

He’s hitting .261 against fourseam fastball this season, but he owned a .342 mark in ’17 (.318 over the course of his career).  Obviously he’s struggled against all types of pitches (.177 on changeups, .182 on sliders, .071 on curveballs), but it all works off the fastball.  If he’s not hitting those he’s going to be more susceptible to other pitches.

Does that mean that we’re ready to write him off and declare him a bust?  Should fantasy owners simply sell and move on?  The increased strikeout rate is a concern, as is the sudden drop in power production.  That said his luck should improve dramatically at home, and when that happens the numbers should start trending upwards.

At 30-years old it’s also hard to think that he’s completely lost it, and considering the numbers he’s posted on the road over the course of his career it’s hard to lose faith.  It’s a cold streak, and a bad one, but there’s far too much of a track record.  Maybe he has lost a little something, but he’s simply not this bad.  Look for things to turn, and likely quickly, and you don’t want to sell low now and miss out on the reward.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, ESPN 

Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings?  Make sure to check it out by clicking here.  



Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=36047

We encourage you to Share our Reports, Analyses, Breaking News and Videos. Simply Click your Favorite Social Media Button and Share.

Report abuse

Comments

Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Loading...
Top Stories
Recent Stories
 

Featured

 

Top Global

 

Top Alternative

 

Register

Newsletter

Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.