Streaming Starters: May 7-13: Are There Any Under-The-Radar Options To Trust? (C. Smith, McCarthy & More)

by Ken Balderston

Streaming pitchers off the waiver wire can be a very effective way to add innings to your staff.  Maybe you missed out on some of your end game pitchers in the draft, have run into a string of injuries or just want to take advantage of some matchups.  Here’s a look at some options owned in less than 50% of CBS leagues to help you gain an advantage this week.

A Grade

To be considered in most leagues

Brandon McCarthy – Braves (at Marlins, 49% owned) ‘A’
McCarthy’s ownership rate is borderline to make this list despite pitching very well until he ran into the Giants on Saturday night.  Before that start he had allowed 2 runs or fewer earned runs in 4 of 6 starts, and Saturday was the first time this year he allowed over 3 runs in a start.  It’s no secret the Marlins have a terrible offense, ranking last in baseball in both home OPS (.640) and overall OPS (.621).  They rarely score more than 3 runs in a full 9 inning game and are dead last with 23 home runs in 32 games.  McCarthy’s last start should not scare off owners of a strong matchup, and he should be streamed in any league where he’s available and a roster spot can be opened.

B Grade

Some nice upside but also some risk

Caleb Smith – Marlins (vs. Braves, 36% owned) ‘B+’
Maybe it’s because he’s been an under the radar prospect, but fantasy owners have been slow to react to Smith’s success.  After another strong start Saturday night in Cincinnati, he owns a 3.67 ERA and 12.58 K/9 on the year, including 18.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB and 26 K in his last 3 starts.  Smith throws his fastball a modest 92.6 mph, but has generated a 13.5% Swstr% on the year (consistent with the 13.0% SwStr% he put up last season mostly out of the Yankees bull pen).  While the young lineup of the Braves is a tough matchup, the way he has been throwing is worth the gamble.  If he’s able to put up another impressive start, you just might want to consider holding onto him and rolling with the hot streak as long as it lasts.

C Grade

Solid option but also a fair amount of uncertainty

Jeremy Hellickson – Nationals (at Padres, 22% owned)  ‘C+’
Hellickson has turned into a bit of a journeyman at this stage of his career, currently on his 5th team in the last 5 years, but also is in the middle of what would be his 6th straight year with a BB/9 under 3.  This season he’s increased his curveball usage, up to 22%, and reduced his fastball usage down to a miniscule 37%, using all 4 pitches to keep hitters guessing.  All in all it’s added up to a 25% soft contact % on the season, and 1.40 GB/FB ratio as well as a very friendly 0.86 HR/9.  his strikeout rate is very low, currently at a 5.57 K/9, slightly up from 5.27 in 2017.  The good news is he’ll be facing the Padres, who have struck out a major league leading 337 times in 33 games heading into Saturday games, and are striking out 10 times per home game.  On top of this they’re 6th worst in baseball with a .681 home OPS, and they’ve recently put Will Myers back on the DL with a strained oblique.  While expectations for this start should be tempered due to the strikeout potential, the Padres could help Hellickson out and all the other info points to a solid start in a very winnable game.

Ian Kennedy – Royals (at Orioles, 41% owned) ‘C+’
Heading into the 2017 season the Royals were thought to have made a nice addition to their rotation with Kennedy but he didn’t deliver, putting up a 5.38 ERA and 5-13 record in 30 starts.  That must have left a bad taste in fantasy owners mouths, as he’s still at a modest 41% ownership rate despite starting 2018 with a 2.92 ERA and 35:11 K:BB ratio in 37 innings.  It’s possible he regresses back to his 2017 self, but odds are against it this Thursday in Baltimore.  The Orioles are normally considered to be a formidable offense, but so far though 32 games are last in the AL and second last in MLB with 114 runs scored (not to mention being shut out by the A’s in the 11th inning at the time of this writing).  Things have not been much better at home, as Baltimore has a .645 home OPS, and are currently without middle of the order bat Johnathan Schoop and a surprising source of power in 2017 in Tim Beckham.  It’s not clear how either Kennedy or the Orioles offense will end the year, but current trends suggest this could be a beneficial matchup.

D Grade

Significant risk but also potential to put up a solid outing

Francisco Liriano – Tigers (at Rangers, 41% owned)  ‘D+’
Liriano’s been a solid starter so far this season, making a couple of successful appearances in this streaming article.  Through 6 starts he’s showing a 2.97 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, even chipping in 3 wins (if you believe in Wins that is…).  This week he’ll be facing the Rangers in Arlington.  The Rangers have had a ton of trouble so far on offense, with the 4th lowest home OPS (.676) and only 13 home runs in 18 home games.  They’re striking out a ton, putting up 331 in 34 total games, 2nd most in baseball.

So why is Liriano only graded as a ‘D+’ streaming option this week?  While lots of signs point to this being a strong matchup, the Rangers are much more successful against lefties, posting .730 OPS, and are much hotter of late, with a .799 OPS in five May games.   While there are things to like about this matchup, it also comes with its share of risks.

Bartolo Colon – Rangers (at Orioles, 41% owned) ‘D’
I can’t add up what Bartolo Colon is doing… he’s days short of his 45th birthday, throws basically one pitch (his fastball, 83% of the time) and he throws it an average of less than 88 mph getting 5.88 K/9.  He allows quite a few home runs, 1.88 HR/9, and his hard hit rate is 46.1% on the year.  That said, he has a 3.29 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.  A .196 BABIP and 87.2% strand rate suggest those figures are destined to rise, but are the Tigers the team to do it?  They’ve been pretty average on the road, putting up a .694 road OPS, powering out a lowly 25 home runs in 32 games.   A quick check on BaseballSavant says Miguel Cabrera and Jeimer Candelario have both had success against the four seamer and sinker this year, though other hitters in the Tigers lineup have struggled (including Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez and Leonys Martin all under .350 wOBA).  While some stats suggest there’s risk in putting Colon on the mound for your fantasy team, there’s also enough to suggest he could succeed if you want to take the chance.

F Grade

Options you might be considering but are not recommended

Nothing sticks out to me as a start an owner might be considering, that I’d strongly recommend against.  If you’re unsure about something or want my two cents, hit me up on Twitter @KenInToronto or in the comments below

Sites consulted: CBSsports, MLB.com, Fangraphs, Rotoworld, BaseballSavant, BrooksBaseball

Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings?  Make sure to check it out by clicking here.