Pick Your Alcs Poison: Rays Or Astros?

Today is an important day, folks and I will definitely be glued to the television tonight. We will FINALLY get to see who the Yankees will take on for the ALCS. No matter who the Yankees play, it is going to be a tough series unlike what we saw against the Twins.

So who are the Yankees going to play….the Rays or the Astros? Or maybe the better question here is…which team would you PREFER to play? There are a few things to consider.

If the Yankees play the Rays:

1. The Yankees get home field advantage for the best of seven series. The Yankees had an 8-1 record against the Rays at home this season. They also play well at home and had the third best home record this season behind only two other teams: the Astros and the Dodgers.

2. More importantly, the Yankees have had success against the Rays this season, they won 12 of 19 games against them. The Rays 12 losses to the Yankees were its most to a single opponent in any season in which it reached the postseason. The last time the Rays lost 12 games to a division rival was in 2013 against the Red Sox, who also beat them in that year’s ALDS.

3. Yankees would avoid Rays big arms early on

Since Tyler Glasnow will start opposite Gerrit Cole his next turn in the rotation wouldn’t be until game three. The Rays are not as likely to start Glasnow on short rest (unlike other teams) after he missed four months earlier this season due to a right forearm strain. That injury was in May of this season at Yankee stadium where he gave up three earned runs. Charlie Morton also may not be available in Game 1 either because there is a very good chance he will pitch in relief tonight considering tonight’s “win or go home” finale. If he pitches tonight the Rays are likely to give him two days rest. Also important, two of Morton’s worst starts during this season were against the Yankees in the Bronx where he gave up five runs in both games.

BUT If the Yankees play the Astros:

1. Redemption!
I’m still thinking about 2017. Fans are still thinking about 2017. Oh and Aaron Judge is still thinking about 2017 against the Astros, “Any year you’re not the last man standing, the season is a fail. You can win every single game in the regular season, but if you lose in the postseason it doesn’t matter. Each year, it left a bad taste in my mouth, especially Game 7 in Houston, never a good taste going into the offseason. But for a lot of guys, that keeps us hungry,” read more HERE. It won’t be easy, but if the Yankees play the Astros and play their best game they could be the winner this time.

2. Yankees would avoid Astros big arms early on

Cole is starting today, so we won’t see him early on, his next time in the rotation would lineup for Game 3. Could the Astros push his start up? Maybe, but Cole has never pitched on short rest before. He’s also never pitched in relief before so it is unlikely they would use him in relief in place of his bullpen day. Then there is Justin Verlander, who did pitch on short rest on Tuesday and had his worst start of the season. The Astros are highly unlikely to pitch him again on short rest. If you like stats like I do check out fangraph’s latest piece HERE, it gives some very interesting insight considering Verlander on short rest and stats show his body likes pitching on schedule. There is still Zack Greinke of course who is a good pitcher, but Cole and Verlander are the more intimidating arms.

Hopefully the extra rest does the Yankees some good and at the same time, the extra playing time hurts our soon to be opponents. The ALCS won’t be easy, both of these teams are very good but you have to pick one to play.

Pick your poison….do you want the Rays or the Astros? Comment and tell us why.

–Jeana Bellezza-Ochoa
BYB Managing Editor
Twitter: @nyprincessj