U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates (left) says he hopes strong international sanctions on Iran will forestall the need for a military strike designed to end the country's chances of developing a nuclear weapon. Gates spoke in Paris, where he and his French counterpart Herve Morin agreed it is time for sanctions after months of diplomatic overtures from the West have not had any impact on Iranian leaders. Secretary Gates is working with allies to develop an effective sanctions regime targeting Iran's government, while having minimal impact on its people. U.S. officials say they hope to bring a resolution to the U.N. Security Council this month, while France holds the rotating presidency. - VOA News

Dominant Social Theme: Mustn't let them have the bomb.

Free-Market Analysis: The trouble with sanctions is that they often provoke the very wars they supposedly are intended to avoid. When the US slapped sanctions on Japan before the Second World War, Japan responded with a good deal more aggressiveness perhaps than US planners had expected. Here's how Wikipedia puts it:

On August 1941, the crisis came to a head as the United States, which at the time supplied 80% of Japanese oil imports, initiated a complete oil embargo. This threatened to cripple both the Japanese economy and military strength once the strategic reserves would run dry. Faced with the choice of either trying to appease the U.S., negotiate a compromise, find other sources of supply or go to war over resources, Japan chose the last option. Hoping to knock out the U.S. for long enough to be able to achieve and consolidate their war-aims, the Japanese Navy attacked the U.S. Navy at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. They mistakenly believed they would have about a two year window to consolidate their conquests before the United States could effectively respond and that the United States would compromise long before they could get anywhere near Japan. (-Wikipedia)

We read here that the proximate cause of Japan's initial military activities against America was the US embargo. When bellicose regimes are pushed into a corner they often strike back - or so it seems to us. But then again perhaps that is the point of such sanctions. While the US may not wish to throw the first punch, there are probably those in the White House and Pentagon who are not averse to throwing a second or third. Sarah Palin herself seemed to indicate as much recently in widely reported remark that Barack Obama could in a sense salvage his administration through an Iranian military action.

We're not quite so sure as Palin that a new war would energize Barack Obama or his failing political effort. 

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