New York, NY - The coming legislative tsunami may result in a direct hit on asset managers. Kass believes the current market cycle resembles the 1994 and 2004 stock market timeframe. That view implies a flat to down market for the better part of 2010 is in store.
Kass notes the recent commentary by SEC Chairwoman Mary Shapiro regarding pending regulatory moves that may directly impact Asset Managers on Wall Street. Specifically, he notes that Shapiro is targeting the enormous 12b-1 fees used for annual distribution and marketing for mutual fund companies. Currently mutual fund holders pay these somewhat hidden fees. Kass notes that $200 Billion - with a "B" - Billion, have been collected by mutual fund companies in the past ten years.
Campanies he is shorting: Franklin Resources (BEN), T. Rowe Price (TROW), AllianceBernstein (AB), Federated Investors (FII) , Janus Capital (JNS).
Doug Kass notes the stock market may decline in the months ahead, though he does not indicate a stock market crash is at hand. He notes the many macro economic forces as well as cyclical market forces that may provide a barrier for further market advances. He notes the historical market rebound of the last year should wane in the coming months.
Among the items providing market headwinds:
Wage Deflation, job losses, aging of the baby boomers and associated reduction in investment activity, as well as the reduction of many companies in their matching contributions into 401k plans.
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