Political science professor Helmut Norpoth says Americans probably shouldn’t pay so much attention to mainstream media polls declaring Hillary Clinton the frontrunner in the presidential contest.
Norpoth, who has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote in every election since 1996, says GOP nominee Donald Trump has an incredible 87 percent chance of beating Clinton in November.
The professor says his election prediction model draws heavily on how each of the candidates performed in their primary elections.
“It usually turns out that the candidate who does better in his party’s primary beats the other guy who does less well,” Northrop told Fox, noting that the primary model has held steady for more than a century.
The professor says he’s so confident in his model that he’s bet money on it.
Norpoth said that while pollsters are more inclined to predict a Clinton victory, academics studying political science see a Trump victory as a likely outcome.
“There are … quite a few colleagues of mine who have a prediction that Trump is going to make it,” he said.
Norpoth’s prediction comes as Americans are learning that mainstream media polls in the 2016 election have been heavily influenced by the Clinton campaign.
In leaked emails from Clinton campaign, the candidate’s team discussed in detail how they could “manufacture” poll results in the Democrat’s favor to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.”
Some of the tactics discussed included working with media to oversample certain demographics more likely to vote Democrat, use Spanish language polls and target “independents” in areas more friendly to Democrats.
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