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A Wrap up on the 2016 Presidential Election Polls

Wednesday, November 16, 2016 8:33
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graph photoI suppose I could start out by writing “I was right and the polls were wrong.”

But I won’t. That would be gloating.

However, I spent a lot of time telling people the polls were wrong. That they were over sampling Democrats and often under sampling Independents (not to mention Republicans). Also, the narrative that Trump was far behind with women was false. He received about the same percentages that McCain and Romney did. But Trump did far better among men.

It is impossible to say if the polls were in some sort of conspiracy to push the “Clinton has already won” narrative or if their party skew – +7 or more Democrat – was just wishful thinking. Obama won in 2008 with +7 Democrats and in 2012 he was +6. The excitement for Trump was obvious in 2016. And the lack of excitement for Clinton was deafening. Those two facts alone should have sent a message to professional pollsters that Clinton was going to perform well under Obama’s past elections.

There were a couple of polls that did a pretty good job, IBD and the LA Times. They skewed Democrat by only a couple of points, which was a more reasonable prediction.

It is a shame that we can no longer be confident in the media and even the polls. Instead of reporting news or measuring the opinion of people, they have reached the point that the polls go hand in hand with the liberal bias in the media. And one has to wonder if the polls, many of which are commissioned by the media, have become a tool of the media to magnify the significance of their efforts against the Republican Party. It seems that every time they put out a negative story on Donald Trump, the polls would show him sinking. But as many of my posts this cycle showed, the polls didn’t really change. They just sampled fewer Republicans and more Democrats.


You be the judge. But I take the polls with a grain of salt.

And my doctor says to watch the salt.

Article written by: Tom White


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