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AI System With Flawless Record Predicts Trump Victory

Wednesday, November 9, 2016 8:45
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An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the winners of the last three presidential elections and the 2016 primaries has some bad news for Hillary Clinton. MogIA, an AI program that measures online political engagement, says that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States.

From CNBC:

MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, the founder of Indian start-up It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.


Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama’s peak in 2008 – the year he came into power – by 25 percent.

Developer Rai told CNBC that while there were enough wild factors in play to throw the system off its game, a Clinton victory would still surprise him.

“If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest,” Rai said.

Clinton is on track to win the election according to most national and state polls, although her margins have eroded significantly in the last week or two. After taking a commanding lead in early October as sexual assault allegations against Trump dominated the news cycle, Clinton’s advantage has shrunk considerably since the final debate.

Rai told CNBC that because many social media users engaged in a negative way with Trump, it could potentially throw MogIA a curve ball. On the other hand, the same could have been said of the Republican primaries.

“If you look at the primaries, there were immense amount of negative conversations that happened with regards to Trump,” Rai told the financial network. “However, when these conversations started picking up pace, in the final days, it meant a huge game opening for Trump and he won the primaries with a good margin.”

Putting aside the futuristic connotations of this story, it’s just a reflection of what all Trump supporters already know. Go to a rally. Drive around your neighborhood and look at all the Trump/Pence signs. Check out Facebook. Talk to people in your congregation. In the polls, the papers, and the TV networks, Hillary Clinton is crushing Trump. But in the real world, her support is elusive and imaginary. It’s like trying to find someone who actually cares about “Hamilton.”

Maybe our eyes and ears deceive us. Maybe Hillary supporters are the real silent majority. Maybe Rai’s AI system isn’t as infallible as it seemed to be.

We shall see.

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