‘Get Out’ – Irma Track Deadly for Keys and West Florida – 11am Update

By Rich Mitchell

The newest National Weather Service forecast predicts a catastrophic track for Hurricane Irma which has led Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina to issue new evacuation orders for certain areas of those states.

CDN – http://www.conservativedailynews.com

This is the most up to date story on Irma but see all of our Irma coverage HERE.

Hurricane Irma’s Current Position and Track

The national weather service is currently forecasting landfall in western Florida. Irma is forecast to first make landfall over Key WEst then on the southwestern coast of the mainland before tracking up the peninsula into Georgia and Tennessee.

1100 AST/EDT (1500 UTC) Update from National Weather Service

• Location: 22.8N 79.8W 175 miles SW of Key West
• Strength: 125 mph max sustained winds (Category 3)
• Movement: W (280 deg.) at 9 mph
• Pressure: 941 mb and rising indicating weakening over Cuba

*next update at 2 pm EDT – check our Irma update page for new information

The latest satellite imagery shows a confused eye and smaller eyewall than previous. This could indicate weakening or just the effects of a close pass with Cuba.

Irma is a strong category three storm and may re-strengthen over the next 12 hours as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Florida.

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Caibarien, Cuba recently reported a wind gust to 124 mph (200 km/h).

Computer Models for Hurricane Irma

Computer models range from a western Florida landfall to staying just off the coast.

Early cycle model consensus forecasts that Irma will ride up the western side of Florida with landfall at Key West and again at St. Petersburg.

The late cycle model consensus forecasts a landfall in the Keys and southwestern Florida then riding up through the western side of the sunshine state.

The intensity models show some strengthening as Irma leaves Cuba and approaches Florida.

U.S. Impacts

The current U.S. portion of Irma’s track shows landfall near Cape Coral and a track straight up the west side of the peninsula and through Georgia.

Florida

The National Weather Service forecasts a direct hit to the Florida Keys and southwest Florida.

Florida has declared a state of emergency and multiple areas have been ordered to evacuate immediately.

• EVACUATIONS AND SHELTERS 
  Though the below evacuation orders are current and in effect, everyone should check with their local emergency management office or website for the most up to date information regarding evacuation as they are constantly being updated.
•  
  • DEM estimates that 5.6 million Floridians have been ordered to evacuate.
  •  
  • Based on recent forecasts, the U.S. Army Corps has been reviewing how the federally operated Herbert Hoover Dike will be impacted. Governor Scott spoke to Col. Jason Kirk with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Corps. believes there will be additional impacts from excessive wind pushing some water over the Dike. While they have assured the Governor that the structural integrity of the Dike will not be compromised, Governor Scott has ordered voluntary evacuations beginning immediately in the cities surrounding the southern half of Lake Okeechobee from Lake Port to Canal Point in Hendry, Palm Beach and Glades counties. Mandatory evacuations are in place for these communities beginning this morning. This decision was made due to Governor Scott’s sole focus on life safety as Hurricane Irma approaches Florida. The seven cities affected by these orders are as follows:
  •  
  • South Bay
  • Lake Harbor
  • Pahokee
  • Moore Haven
  • Clewiston
  • Belle Glade
  • Canal Point
  •  
  • Brevard – mandatory evacuations for Zone A, Merritt Island, barrier islands, and some low-lying mainland areas along Indian River Lagoon
  •  
  • Broward – mandatory East of Federal Highway including barrier islands
  •  
  • Charlotte – voluntary evacuations for Don Pedro Island, Knight Island (Palm Island), Little Gasparilla Island, Manosota Key, all mobile homes
  •  
  • Citrus – mandatory evacuations for residents west of Hwy 19, 1 and ½ miles east of Hwy 19 excluding Sugarmill Woods. This also includes all of the city of Crystal River, all low lying areas throughout the entire county and anyone residing in mobile homes, manufactured homes and all unsafe structures throughout the entire county
  •  
  • Collier – mandatory evacuations for Goodland, Everglades City, Chokoloskee, all mobile homes
  •  
  • Desoto- voluntary evacuations for people in low-lying/flood prone areas, residents living in mobile homes and RV parks
  •  
  • Flagler – mandatory evacuations for nursing homes, all varieties of assisted living facilities, and community residential group homes within coastal and Intracoastal areas and voluntary for zones A, B, C, F; mandatory for Zones A,B,C,F, and substandard housing beginning on Saturday
  •  
  • Glades – mandatory evacuations for areas around Lake Okeechobee (Lakeport, Moorehaven, Washington Park, Benbow and Uncle Joe’s Motel and Campground). Also mandatory for residents in Zone A and anyone in an RV park, mobile home or building constructed before 1992.
  •  
  • Hardee – voluntary evacuations for low-lying areas, mobile homes, and port structures
  •  
  • Hendry – voluntary evacuations for low-lying areas, non-slab-built homes, mobile homes, trailers and RVs, mandatory for areas near Lake Okeechobee (Clewiston, Hookers Point, Harlem, Flaghole, Montura Ranch Estates, Mid-County MSBU which inlcudes Ladeca, Pioneer Plantation and Leon-Dennis Subdivision, Al Don Farming Road)
  •  
  • Hernando – mandatory evacuations for Zones A and B and mobile homes
  •  
  • Highlands – voluntary for low areas and mobile/manufactured homes
  •  
  • Hillsborough – voluntary for special-needs residents in Evacuation Zone A.
  •  
  • Indian River – voluntary evacuations for barrier islands, low-lying areas, mandatory for Saturday
  •  
  • Lee – mandatory for Cape Coral west of Burnt Store Road and south of Cape Coral Parkway, east of Del Prado Boulevard to Viscaya Parkway, North Fort Myers south of Bay Shore Road from Moody Road to State Road 31 and areas south of North River Road from State Road 31 to Fichters Creek, areas of Iona south of Maple Drive, west of U.S. 41, San Carlos Park west of U.S. 41, Estero west of U.S. 41, north of the Estero River, Bonita Springs communities along Estero Bay and the Imperial River Basin, all of the barrier islands.
  •  
  • Manatee – voluntary evacuations for Zone A and mobile homes.
  •  
  • Martin – mandatory evacuations for barrier islands, manufactured homes, and low-lying areas beginning Saturday
  •  
  • Miami-Dade – mandatory evacuations for all of Zone A, all of Zone B, and portions of Zone C. Miami Dade residents can find their zones by clicking HERE.
  •  
  • Monroe – mandatory evacuations for visitors and residents. A dedicated transportation hotline is available specifically for individuals in the Keys at 305-517-2480
  •  
  • Pasco – mandatory evacuations for residents living west of U.S. 19. Also mandatory for residents living north of Fox Hollow Drive west of Little Rd. and south of Fox Hollow Drive west of Regency Park Blvd./Rowan Rd./Seven Springs Blvd. Special needs residents, and those living in manufactured homes, mobile homes, RV’s, and anyone living in a low-lying area or an area prone to flooding are also under mandatory evacuation. Voluntary evacuations for residents living south of Fox Hollow Drive to the south county line between Regency Park Blvd./Rowan Rd./Seven Springs Blvd. and Little Rd.
  •  
  • Palm Beach – mandatory evacuations for Zone A and B, voluntary for Zone C and Lake Zone E (Canal Point, Belle Glade, and Pahokee)
  •  
  • Pinellas – mandatory evacuations all mobile home and Zone A
  •  
  • Sarasota – voluntary evacuations in Zone A (Longboat, Lido, Siesta, Casey Key, Manasota Key, Venice Island), all mobile homes
  •  
  • St. Lucie – mandatory north and south Hutchinson Island, low-lying areas, manufactured homes
  •  
  • Additional evacuations are expected throughout the state. All Floridians should pay close attention to local alerts and follow the directions of local officials.
  •  
  • Shelters are continuing to open across the state, including shelters for people with special needs, pets and general populations. DOH is coordinating the set up and staffing for special needs shelters. A list of all open shelters will be available at floridadisaster.org/shelters.
  •  
  • FEMA is also hosting shelter information on its mobile app which can be found at fema.gov/mobile-app.
  •  
  • The state is working with the American Red Cross to identify shelter capacity both during and following the storm.

Floridians should start preparing now to either shelter-in-place or evacuate. As Irma tracks towards Florida, additional evacuations will likely be posted. Don’t wait until the last minute and please listen to local authorities for instructions.

Georgia

Georgia has declared a state of emergency. Gov. Nathan Deal issued a mandatory evacuation order Thursday for all areas east of I-95 and other parts of the state’s coast as Hurricane Irma barrels toward Florida and Georgia with potentially catastrophic force.

“I encourage all Georgians in our coastal areas that could be impacted by this storm to evacuate the area as soon as possible,” Deal said. “Beginning Saturday, a mandatory evacuation order will take effect for Chatham County, all areas east of I-95 and some areas west of I-95 that could be impacted by this catastrophic hurricane and storm surge. GEMA/HS continues leading our preparedness efforts as we coordinate with federal, state and local officials to safely evacuate the coastal areas, provide public shelter and minimize the disruption of traffic. Finally, I ask all Georgians to join me in praying for the safety of our people and all those in Hurricane Irma’s path.”

South Carolina

South Carolina has declared a state of emergency, coastal areas and barrier islands are under a mandatory evacuation order.

“Now is the time to prepare,” Gov. McMaster warned during a news conference at the S.C. Emergency Management Division headquarters on Wednesday. “When it’s too late, it’s too late and that’s when we have a lot sadness.”

North Carolina

Gov. Roy Cooper has declared a state of emergency for North Carolina. No evacuations have been ordered.

Watches and Warnings

Areas under storm surge warning

* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

Areas under storm surge watch

* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Venice to Anclote River
* Tampa Bay

Areas under Hurricane Warning

* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna Maria Island
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

Areas under Hurricane Watch

* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

Areas under Tropical Storm Warning

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

Areas under Tropical Storm Watch

* None

What to Expect from Hurricane Irma

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

• Cape Sable to Captiva…10 to 15 ft
• Captiva to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
• Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
• Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay…5 to 8ft
• North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay…4to 6 ft
• Isle of Palms, South Carolina to Fernandina Beach…4 to 6 ft
• Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River…4 to 6 ft
• Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach…2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas…3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern
Bahamas today, and in portions of the Florida peninsula and the
Florida Keys tonight and Sunday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southern Cuba…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Western Bahamas…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
The Florida Keys…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia…8 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.
The eastern Florida Panhandle…3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North
Carolina…4 to 8 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the
United States today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

When to Expect Hurricane Irma and Where

INIT 09/1500Z 22.8N 79.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 23.4N 80.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 26.4N 82.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 29.0N 82.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 34.5N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 13/1200Z 36.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 14/1200Z 37.0N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND

The article ‘Get OUT’ – Irma track deadly for Keys and West Florida – 11am Update is original content from Conservative Daily News.

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