Hurricane Irma Packs 185 mph Winds; Models still point at Florida

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By Rich Mitchell

Irma, already a strong category five hurricane, is likely to strike the British Virgin Islands in the next 12 hours and continue on a track very likely to heavily impact Florida this weekend as a major Hurricane.

Follow our latest Irma coverage HERE.

1700 AST (2100 UTC) Update from National Weather Service

• Location: 17.1 N, 59.8 W
• Strength: 185mph max sustained winds (Very Strong Category 5)
• Movement: W (280 deg.) at 15 mph
• Pressure: 926 mb and stable

The latest satellite imagery shows the clearly defined eye wall and strong outflow expected from a storm of this intensity.

Irma is a very strong category five storm but is expected to weaken to a category four over the next 72 hours as it heads towards the coast of Florida.

Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

Computer Models for Hurricane Irma

5-day weather models put Irma just south of or over southern Florida on Sunday. The models separate slightly after that, but consensus shows an increasing chance that Irma will directly impact Florida. The chance that Florida takes a direct south-to-north hit by a major hurricane is increasing by the hour. Models expect Irma to be a category 4 major hurricane as it nears the Florida coast.

U.S. Impacts

Model consensus continues to point to an increasingly likely impact to Florida and the Florida Keys from Hurricane Irma. Florida’s Governor Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency to help the state prepare for what could be a major hurricane when it reaches the sunshine state.

Today, Governor Rick Scott issued Executive Order 17-235 declaring a state of emergency in all 67 counties within the State of Florida in response to Hurricane Irma – a major Category 4 storm approaching Florida. By declaring a state of emergency in all 67 Florida counties, Governor Scott is ensuring that local governments have ample time, resources and flexibility to get prepared for this dangerous storm and are not hindered, delayed or prevented from taking all necessary actions to keep communities safe.

If the storm takes the current model’s predicted course, straight up the middle of the Florida peninsula, damage could be catastrophic for the state. The storm could devastate communities from the Keys to the panhandle in a matter of just over 24 hours. Floridians should start preparing now to either shelter-in-place or evacuate. Don’t wait until the last minute and please listen to local authorities for instructions.

Watches and Warnings

Areas under Hurricane Warning

* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

Areas under Hurricane Watch

* Guadeloupe
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

Areas under Tropical Storm Warning

* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti

Areas under Tropical Storm Watch

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

What to Expect from Hurricane Irma

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

• Northern Leeward Islands…7 to 11 ft
• Turks and Caicos Islands…15 to 20 ft
• Southeastern Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
• Northern coast of the Dominican Republic…3 to 5 ft
• Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave…1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

• British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix…7 to 11 ft
• Northern coast of Puerto Rico…3 to 5 ft
• Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday:

Northern Leeward Islands…8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix…4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and
St. Croix…2 to 4 inches

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesday through Saturday:

• Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos…8 to 12 inches, isolated 20
  inches
• Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti…4 to 10 inches,
  isolated 15 inches
• Southwest Haiti…1 to 4 inches

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

When to Expect Hurricane Irma

NOW 05/2100Z 17.1N 59.8W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.6N 61.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 18.5N 64.6W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.5N 67.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 70.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 21.6N 75.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 22.7N 79.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 24.4N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

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