Fantasy Throwdown: Hunter Renfroe vs. Franmil Reyes: Who Should We Be Targeting For ’18 & Beyond?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The San Diego Padres have moved Wil Myers to third base, opening up at bats in their outfield to evaluate as many as their young players as possible.  Two who have made an impact of late are Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes, so who is the better option to target?  Let’s take a look:

Hunter Renfroe
We took a quick look at him recently, dubbing him an option to buy.  There has never been a question about his power potential, having hit 30 HR a year ago (26 HR in the Majors, 4 HR in Triple-A) and 34 HR in ’16 (4 HR in the Majors, 30 HR in Triple-A).  That’s continued into 2018, as he’s proven he can hit the ball out of any ballpark (12 HR over 240 AB, split evenly between home and on the road) and there’s room for further growth (17.1% HR/FB).

The biggest question has always been his ability to make consistent contact, but he’s made strides since last season:

With an 11.7% SwStr% and 28.5% O-Swing% in August things continue to get better, and that only brightens the outlook.  Even with a small step backwards, as long as he keeps the strikeout rate in the 25-26% range it will be more than enough.

He owns a 46.1% Hard%, and even his 35.9% mark in August should lead to a better overall BABIP considering he’s not taking a home run centric approach (39.3% fly ball rate).  While he could be a bit prone to the shift, given his 51.7% Pull%, there’s enough here to think that he could be a .260-.270 hitter.  When coupled with the power potential, and thus ample RBI/R, there’s a lot to like.

Franmil Reyes
Like Renfroe there is plenty of power, with 25 HR between Triple-A and the Majors, and an ability to hit the ball hard (41.0% Hard% in the Majors).  However does anyone believe that he can maintain the HR/FB rates he’s shown at each level:

• Triple-A – 32.0%
• Majors – 34.6%

That’s not to say that he can’t produce, but this level seems like a stretch.

Reyes does a better job of spreading the ball around the field (34.9% Pull%), but is he going to be able to make consistent contact?  Thus far in the Majors he’s posted a 14.0% SwStr%, though he’s cut that down to 8.8% in a short August sample (26 PA).  Obviously no one want to point towards that as being a real number, especially considering his 12.4% SwStr% while at Triple-A.

At best you would say his strikeout rate should be similar to Renfroe’s, though we’ll have to see how he adjusts as opposing pitchers change the approach.  Reyes is still seeing mostly fastballs (67.65% in August), so will the SwStr% rise as he faces more offspeed pitches and breaking balls?

Throw in the risk of a power regression, and it’s easy to envision Reyes struggling down the stretch.

Conclusion
Both players have value, but if you are looking towards just 2018 Renfroe is the player to invest in.  He’s already gotten exposure and is starting to make the necessary adjustments, while Reyes still likely has some growing pains in his future.  Long-term we’d still favor Renfroe, but the gap is significantly smaller.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

Make sure to check out all of our Midseason Prospect Rankings: