Kenneth N. Waltz, senior research analyst at the Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, is a prominent “realist” in the field of international relations, and he’s in favor of nuclear proliferation – the bogeyman of both the peace movement and government agencies engaged in our endless “war on terrorism.”
The former abhor nukes per se: it’s no accident the anti-nuclear energy movement and the antiwar movements have historically been aligned. The same people turn out at their demonstrations. The latter are on the trail of “loose” nukes, which may have gotten out of the hands of some of the Soviet republics when the Kremlin’s power imploded – and non-state actors who might be about to get their hands on nuclear materials.
Waltz’s recent scintillating piece in Foreign Affairs magazine is a sharp challenge to the conventional wisdom, not only on the question of “proliferation,” but also on the present rush to war against Iran, which he takes on with disarming bluntness:
“Most U.S., European, and Israeli commentators and policymakers warn that a nuclear-armed Iran would be the worst possible outcome of the current standoff. In fact, it would probably be the best possible result: the one most likely to restore stability to the Middle East.”
Even opponents of war with Iran always append their remarks with the proviso that of course it wouldn’t be a good thing if Tehran joined the nuclear club, it would be “destabilizing,” etc. etc. Not Waltz. Instead, after considering two possible scenarios he considers unlikely – Iranian capitulation and Western acceptance of “breakout” capacity – he challenges the War Party’s central premise:
“The third possible outcome of the standoff is that Iran continues its current course and publicly goes nuclear by testing a weapon. U.S. and Israeli officials have declared that outcome unacceptable, arguing that a nuclear Iran is a uniquely terrifying prospect, even an existential threat. Such language is typical of major powers, which have historically gotten riled up whenever another country has begun to develop a nuclear weapon of its own. Yet so far, every time another country has managed to shoulder its way into the nuclear club, the other members have always changed tack and decided to live with it. In fact, by reducing imbalances in military power, new nuclear states generally produce more regional and international stability, not less.”
