The Breakup of Iraq

It’s been a busy week in the world of foreign policy. One story that would normally be a top global headline might almost slip through the cracks amid stories of Russia posturing with the US, Israel and Hamas at war in Gaza and North Korea threatening nuclear attacks. But recent peculiar moves in Iraq have many people questioning the stability of the overall government.

A large oil tanker ship pulled into the coast of Texas this weekend, all the way from Iraq. But after a judge’s overnight ruling, Washington DC put in a call to the local authorities and ordered them to seize the ship. The large boat was carrying 1 million barrels of Iraqi Kurdish crude oil.

Now, the US State Department is tiptoeing around the boat, worried that if they accept the import, they will upset Baghdad leadership. Baghdad considers Kurdistan to be a part of Iraq and any untaxed imports would constitute smuggling. The Kurds began drilling and exporting oil out of the country into Turkey late last year.

For now, the United States is recognizing Baghdad’s authority as the leader of the middle eastern country, but this recent development adds fuel to the fire in speculation that Iraq might split apart into three states. In some ways, it already has.

A former US Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, already calls the three ‘states,’ Shiastan, Jihadistan and Kurdistan. Since the US withdrew from the country, much of the installed government has been left in shambles. ISIS is running roughshod over the northern regions of Iraq while the Kurds try to split away and capitalize on their own oil revenues.

Meanwhile, the Sunnis in western Iraq are frustrated about so many of their countrymen joining forces with ISIS. With so much oil revenue at stake, it might not be much longer before each of the three parties attempt to duke it out for themselves.