Could the Atlantic Basin see its first tropical system? MoJO in Effect...see why

The official start to the Atlantic Basin hurricane season is this Sunday, June 1st, and there are some signs that there could be some early tropical activity to monitor. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is raising the possibility of tropical troubles in the Atlantic Basin during the early-to-middle part of June and this could ultimately have an impact on the east coast. The MJO index tracks a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days.

The MJO has wide ranging impacts on the patterns of tropical and extratropical precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and surface temperatures around the global tropics and subtropics. Research has found that the location or “phase” of the MJO is linked with certain temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. The very latest MJO forecast by the European computer forecast model (see plot above) propagates the MJO index into phases 2 and 3 during the early-to-middle part of June and studies have shown that these two phases tend to be correlated with increased tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.

MORE ON THE TROPICS AND WHERE IT MIGHT HIT