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Massive Storm System To Slam Southern California

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We have officially declared Pacific Storm Carolyn into Southern California by Tuesday of this next week, in-which a start of Category Three out of Six status has been given to the storm.  This storm system has the potential of up to category four or five power, however at this time we will start her on category three and move up accordingly as she gets closer.  If you are a prepper that wants to prepare early, get your sandbags ready now if you are in a flood prone area.

At the current time the pattern does favor a large and powerful storm system into California.  The question right now is how will the surface low behave west of here.  Should the surface low move faster to the north on Monday, we will miss the plume of tropical moisture into Baja, Mexico (Southern) on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Should the surface low come due west into Monterey Bay, we will see a strong plume of tropical moisture and strong frontal zone winds on Tuesday.   Should the surface low bump a bit further south than expected we will see a combination of tornadoes, strong winds, and torrential downpours.

This all will depends on the actual track of the surface low section of this storm.  No doubt my current thinking is that on Tuesday we will have strong south-southeast backing low level jet potential across very strong lifting in the wide area of upper divergence within the system.  However, given this type of setup we’re looking at a less convective event on the initial front, with more rain and possibly some damaging wind gusts along the front than anything.  But … given the low level shear that will be in place, isolated tornado potential has been seen with these types of squall-lines even without lightning.   This is a rare scenario, but we have seen it before many years back.

The snow level with the main swath of rainfall dynamics will be over 10,000 feet so this is not going to bring feet of snow to the resorts.  In fact, this is going to cause a major flooding problem in all mountain/foothills zones on the south/west facing sides.

Given the flooding concerns with strong low level jet dynamics, a Flood Watch will likely be needed as early as Sunday evening for this event and those will be coordinated here at SCWF accordingly when we feel the time is right.  However if you are a prepper, you’d want to get sandbags right now if you live in Malibu, any foothill zones, or just any flood prone zone to begin with …  sometime over the weekend.

Because of the tropical moisture’s depth, the rain will make it well over the mountains into all desert locations, where the High Desert remains the best chance at heavy rainfall.

The storm system’s track could bring an active area of thunderstorms through the region later Tuesday into Tuesday Night / Wednesday if the track remains the same.  We really want this further south a bit for a good widespread thunderstorm event.

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