National Alert Forecast November 18th through November 23rd

The arctic air mass remains in place for the Central and Eastern United States all the way down to Florida while the Western United States gets hit with multiple storm systems this week.  Find out how your area will be by reading on.

Pacific Northwest – Storms are expected to return by the middle of the week, with a potentially stronger storm by Friday into some of the weekend.  The overall outlook is for average temperatures with above average precipitation due to multiple storm fronts moving into this region, especially the Southern half of Oregon.

California – California will get multiple fronts moving into the area by the middle of the week, lasting through the end of the week.  This will result in much above average precipitation for this time of year.  The tropical jet will be aimed up from the west-southwest into Central and Northern California.  This is where most of the storms will be.  As for Southern California, it’s possible that tail-end charlie fronts moving through will bring rainfall down into the metro areas, but note the sub-tropical jet on the image below shows a west to east zonal flow over that area.  This means that rainfall is likely, but a tropical connection is not going to be as strong.  Still ,rain and storms will be possible in Southern California.  Temperatures as a result will mainly be slightly above to above average for the average part of the state this week.

Northern Rocky Mountain States MT/WY – This zone will have average precipitation with the exception of east of the Rockies for Central/Eastern Wyoming, given the fact there will be a dry northwest flow over much of the area all week.  However, toward later weekend and at the very end of this, a storm system may come through the area, which ups the snowfall potential for this zone.  It will be further monitored, but as of now it remains too far away for details.  Overall the work week will be drier and colder than normal for Eastern parts of the states, with Western sections having above normal temperatures as you escape the coldest air mass to the east.

Northern Plains – The Northern Plains will have a cold arctic northwest flow still and this will bring below to way below average temperatures.  Some snowfall is likely for this region toward the end of the period, this next weekend across parts of SD/ND.

Central Plains – The Central Plains will have a cold arctic northwest flow still and this will bring below to way below average temperatures.  There are no storms in the forecast for this period or any major events.  The area will have below average to record low precipitation averages.

Southern Plains – Continues northwest flow will bring below normal temperatures to this region this week.  Most of the area will be drier than normal, some areas having a record dry week.  The exception will be with a front by the mid week for East TX into AR … but a stronger impulse for Central OK/TX starts for the front over the weekend.  Still the area will see below normal precipitation from OKC/DFW for this time of year.

Midwest – Arctic air continues through the week with shots of hit and miss snow-showers across the MN/WI areas.  Seems very similar to the last week with the same flow.  Average precipitation will result, but Iowa will see below normal precipitation … as will Eastern WI.  No much storm systems expected.

Great Lakes States – Split between Northern and Southern will be above average precipitation for the Gaylord, MI forecast areas with below for Lansing to Detroit areas.  Looks like below normal for much of IN/IL as well given the northwest flow.  A strong storm system toward the weekend may bring a front into the Eastern IN and Southern IL zones, stretching into the Ohio areas as well so average precipitation for the state of OH majority is what I’m going with as a result.

Southeast – Looks like the Southeastern USA will have a split between above normal precipitation across parts of LA/MS/AL/GA/TN and drier than normal across New Orleans, Southern MS/GA and all of Florida.  Furthermore it looks like that this is due to a strong front by the weekend that will be monitored for you.  Still, the arctic air remains in place, this time stretching the colder than normal temperatures all the way down to Florida.

Mid-Atlantic – Most of the area will be much below average precipitation due to the drier flow in the area.  Looks as if the arctic air will also be in place due to the polar jet as seen from the images below.  Toward Sunday (End of this forecast period and not counting later Sunday evening/night) you may get that front for precipitation across the area.  Regardless the entire week from Tuesday through Saturday looks very dry.

Northeast – Most of New England from New York, CT/MA/RI and much of NH and ME looks drier than average due to that dry arctic air in the area.  No doubt this will be cold and it will be much below average for this time of year as we maintain the grip of this arctic air mass.  Lake Effect snow for the New York State areas will be ongoing with the flow … so average precipitation for this time of year for you folks.

Canada – A tropical jet will bring average to above average precipitation for Western Canada and the flow from that moisture will also bring average precipitation for areas in Southern Canada as well.  It will be colder than normal for Central to Eastern Canada but for Western Canada you’ll see above average temperatures as you will be west of the arctic jet stream northwest flow.  Being Nova Scotia and New Foundland have average and above average precipitation, snowfall will be likely there.

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