National Alert Forecast November 25th through November 30th

Delivered To You Every Sunday:  Arctic air remains across the Eastern United States with a developing nor’easter pattern that models cannot get a hold on so it will be worth monitoring, which hits the Southeast overnight on Tuesday and through the East/Northeast on Wednesday.  All eyes are on tracking of this pattern.  Severe weather possible for Florida and the Pacific Northwest remains getting battered with storms.  Get the details in a zone breakdown by reading on …

Pacific Northwest – The tropical jet stream will be aimed up that way as a trough anchors well offshore.  The split pattern will provide for an active storm track through the area, with WA/MT having the most precipitation (MT having excellent snowfall totals especially through Tuesday.  The first in the series of storms hits WA/OR on Monday, bringing a round of precipitation through the area.  The next one is expected on Thursday and lasting into Friday.  One thing to note is the angle of the fronts will make it so that WA receives more rainfall than most of OR with this event so this is reflected on the maps below for average precipitation.  Because of this type of pattern with the tropical jet stream, expecting the overall temperatures to be well above normal for this time of year across WA/OR and above for Western MT into ID.

California – California will have above normal temperatures with a ridge of high pressure in control so expect Central/Southern California to remain dry and the southern end of storm fronts hitting Northern California.  All and all the Northern section will be the focus as it has average/above average precipitation.  We’ll be waiting all week for that to hit you guys, with end week into the weekend being the most likely window to return storms back into the Northern California region.  Some of these may be strong, possibly containing thunderstorm dynamics.  Further outlooks will be posted.

Northern Rocky Mountain States MT/WY – Precipitation is possible within this zone on Tuesday and then again toward the end of the week.  MT having the most precipitation (MT having excellent snowfall totals especially through Tuesday.  Most of the state of MT and into Northern WY will be much above normal for precipitation, while Central/Southern WY has below normal.  Here’s not to say that there won’t be precipitation in Central/Southern WY … because there will be … but not enough to tip the averages.

Northern Plains – The Northern Plains will have a cold arctic northwest flow still and this will bring below to way below average temperatures.  Given the ridge in place over the Western USA< Alberta clipper scenarios seem likely for this region, therefore looking at North Dakota having the most precipitation out of the ND/SD Northern Plains zone.  The first clipper comes into the area on Tuesday, another on Thursday and another on Friday.  Snowfall is likely within this region … most of these clippers missing Central/Southern South Dakota.

Central Plains – A very dry week is expected with continued northwest flow over NE/KS … and this bodes with below normal to even record below normal precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures.  The arctic air mass will not be active in this region with the near zonal type flow so expecting temperatures as an average to be above normal.

Southern Plains – A zonal flow will bring mainly above normal temperatures as a whole to this region with below normal for Texas.  Some precipitation is possible down there but elsewhere I’m thinking this flow is too dry for any precipitation.  So with that being said, we’ll end that forecast there.

Midwest – Polar jet moving across the area will bring Alberta clippers into IA/MN/WI.  The clipper days are Tuesday and Friday, with Tuesday affecting Iowa and Friday not … Complicated pattern but overall these systems will produce more snowfall in the region.  Because of the arctic air mass, expecting well below normal temperatures.

Great Lakes States – Well below normal temperatures seems reasonable along with shots of snowfall by mid-week.  System is too sparse to go into details … overall it looks cold/dry with the most precipitation hitting Central/Northern MI due to ‘Lake Effect Snows’ there.

Southeast – Well below normal temperatures for the region with the arctic air mass in behind the massive front moving through now and through Monday.  By mid-week, a surface low (developing nor’easter) will affect the area, mainly parts of FL/GA.  This surface low will bring a round of precipitation up along the eastern coast Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Flooding rains will be likely with such a system, including severe weather for Central/Southern Florida and this will be watched for further updates.  Further west into most of AL/MS/TN not expecting this to hit, therefore continue cold and dry conditions persist.
This zone is a focus spot that will address further updates, articles, or alerts through the week.

Carolinas – Many models are still trying to decide what they want to do with the developing nor’easter into Wednesday, but by tracking this I could say it may be further east than most models says, missing most of the Piedmont with the worst to the south and east.  So what i’ll do is split the states in half, west dry and east wet.  Snowfall potential may be better over North Carolina (North/Northeast) than further south into SC but overall this will be a cold system moving in.  It will be monitored and there will be an update to all email/app alert systems on this website so we’ll address that soon.
This zone is a focus spot that will address further updates, articles, or alerts through the week.

Mid-Atlantic – A number of models slam this area with a nor’easter but as of now I’m taking it further east so I’ll keep the area under below normal precipitation conditions.  Give the dry/cold northwest flow behind the nor’easter, expecting below normal temperatures to remain in this area.  Because of the model spread, will continue to monitor this area.
This zone is a focus spot that will address further updates, articles, or alerts through the week.

Northeast – A number of models slam this area with a nor’easter but as of now I’m taking it further east so I’ll keep the area under below normal precipitation conditions.  Give the dry/cold northwest flow behind the nor’easter, expecting below normal temperatures to remain in this area.
This zone is a focus spot that will address further updates, articles, or alerts through the week.

Canada – The polar jet over the region will keep arctic air in place across all of Canada, with the exception of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and New Foundland, where there will be average temperatures due to the nor’easter bringing in a warm flow in the low levels.  However, Alberta Clippers will bring above normal precipitation to Western/Central/Eastern Canada so this looks like an active snow-storm train, especially across BC/Alberta/SK/MB.  Above normal will hit the NS and NF areas as well due to that nor’easter flow.

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