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Multi-Day Severe Weather Event Starts Saturday, Strong Tornadoes, Keep An Eye To The Sky (Video)

Wednesday, April 23, 2014 5:40

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..SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MS

VALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY…STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE…

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE

ECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OF

WRN U.S. TROUGH. CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG

SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENS

LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT

INTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY. INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KT

SHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THEN

EJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOT

EXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARY

MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER

VALLEY.

MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE

SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONGLY

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT

FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX…NWD INTO KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND

TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY AS

LOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN

KS. MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18Z

SUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXING

ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT. AS A

RESULT…SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE

MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OF

POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.

LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO

THE MS VALLEY. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF

THE FRONT FROM LA…NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLE

TN. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTOR

CONVECTION.

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