The Economic Apocalypse is Here: Epocalypse Now

David Haggith | Great Recession

When I predicted the economic apocalypse would begin for the US this month, I said the stock market would rise euphorically after the Fed raised its interest target. Rise it did. Steeply, too. I also said it would fall shortly after. Fall it did. Quickly, too. Now I’m saying the Epocalypse is here.

Just as I stated that “the rate at which the market goes up now is a measurement of pure euphoria,” by the same token, how quickly that euphoria falls off indicates just how far down the downside is. If you have ever floated in the ocean and felt yourself unexpectedly drop way down with the water, you know that means a huge wave is coming up right behind you.

“Particularly watch out,” I warned, “if the euphoria cools quickly because, after more than a year of concern over what would happen when stimulus ended, there is a lot of relief the bulls would like to celebrate. If the euphoria cools quickly, it’s likely to mean things are ready to go down hard and fast.”

While I said in my last article, “Their party could last for days or end tomorrow,” I actually anticipated the euphoric rise in the stock market would last several days, given how long investors feared what might happen when the Fed raised rates and how relieved they’d be that the sky didn’t fall that day … and how persistent they have been in taking bad news as good news.

That the market turned so quickly on itself is a strong indication of how different the Epocalypse will be compared to previous Fed tightenings following previous recessions where the revelry over recovery lasted longer. For such a long “recovery” out of such a deep hole, the celebration sure was short!

During many Fed tightenings, the stock market and overall economy improved for years afterward … because the Fed stimulus had actually brought a temporary form of economic recovery. Rarely if ever has the mood turned dark so fast after the Fed officially announced that the recovery is sound and the life support can be removed.

So, even while I knew the global economic news was bleak, I didn’t expect the market bulls to snuff out their own ecstasy the day after the ball began. I can only imagine how much the permabulls wanted to go on air that next morning to revel in their “We told you so’s” about how the economy would do just fine after a Fed rate hike. Only they could not. They woke up to face reality.

As the new week begins, everyone is nervously guessing which way the market will continue. That also tells you the market is starting to realize that bad news is only bad news from this point forward.

The party in the bull pen is over

Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, looked visibly happy when she was able to make the announcement of her lifetime — the claim that things looked optimistic enough for the Fed’s recovery that the Fed could finally end its economic aid. Never before has a Fed chairman looked less dour and more ready to crack open the champagne for the big Fed Christmas party.

Her market minions gleefully rewarded their queen with am immediate rise of 200 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the remains of the day after she delivered her glad yule tidings.

The market, however, decided to crash the street party along Wall Street the next morning by dropping 253 points — farther than it had risen during the celebration. The real gravity of those numbers was proven when the fall picked up speed for a 367-point plunge the next day, bringing the stock market down over 600 points before it closed at the end of last week.

And, so, the Fed’s rate hike made this the most volatile December for the Dow since the economic crisis of 2008. Moreover, since 1990 Decembers have been the least volatile month of the year. So, something is different this time. Something is very deeply and disturbingly different if you compare this seventy-degree day of Winter Solstice in Washington to any other.

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