The Clash: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and now Turkey – Countdown to World War Trump II
I. The countdown to World War Trump has begun1. As I argued in my previous September 2019 WSI article, the US approach toward Iran, coupled with NATO/EU enlargement, the 1999 war “over” Kosovo, and the deployment of US/NATO Missile Defense systems in eastern Europe, and now the Trump administration decision to dump the 1987 INF Treaty and possibly deploy war-fighting intermediate range missiles, has helped to generate a post-Cold War “insecurity-security dialectic” throughout the wider Middle East and the world in which Russia and China have reached out for closer political-economic and military ties with both Iran and Turkey—in the formation of a new Sino-Russian axis.
Many of the present conflicts in the wider Middle East were exacerbated by the Bush administration’s ill-conceived preclusive military intervention in Iraq in 2003 that has destabilized much of the region. As to be discussed, the possibility that the ongoing conflicts in this region could draw the US, Russia and other powers into wider or deeper military interventions at counter-purposes is real.
This is true despite President Trump’s claim that he is trying to reduce the US military presence and vulnerability abroad—as indicated by his initial proposal in December 2018 to eventually withdraw and relocate the 1000-2000 US troop presence in northern Syria. By October 6, 2019, Trump then opened the door for Turkey to intervene militarily in the region in Operation Peace Spring.
I intend to discuss other zones of conflict, between India, Pakistan and China over Jammu/ Kashmir and other regions, plus the burgeoning potential for military conflict between the US, Japan and China over North Korea, Taiwan, islands in the South and East China Seas, and now Hong Kong, in the Indo-Pacific, in a future article.
II. Issue of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
One of the major reasons why President Trump dumped the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran nuclear accord that had been signed by the Obama administration was the fear that Iran would soon enter the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) after having fulfilled its JCPOA obligations―assuming that Tehran did restrict its nuclear enrichment capabilities and once UN sanctions on Iran were dropped2.
In effect, it has been feared that Tehran’s membership in the SCO would represent the “keystone” that would help solidify a Russia-China axis. Moreover, the China-Russia-led SCO could potentially link with NATO-member Turkey―which has, like Iran, been flirting with joining the SCO at least since November 20163.
In effect, both Iran and Turkey are key to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And with China in the background, Russia, Iran, and Turkey have all attempted to resolve the Syrian conflict in their respective interests in the Astana process―largely to the exclusion of the Arab Gulf states and the US and Europeans.
