Why we might be under lockdown longer than Wuhan

The lockdown on Hubei province is being lifted this week, two months after it was imposed. The city of Wuhan itself will be quarantined for another two weeks.

All things being equal, that would suggest that we’re looking at two to two and a half months of lockdown here, which Trudeau announced on March 8. This suggests we should be in the clear sometime in May.

But here’s the problem; all things are not equal. I don’t know what the lockdown looks like in your neck of the woods, but around here we’re a long way from “locked down.” Yes, things are certainly quieter than normal, and a lot of businesses have either closed or reduced hours, but there’s still plenty of folks out and about.

In China, on the other hand, the authorities have considerably more latitude. Lockdown means lockdown now, or find yourself in a re-education camp for a spell, and you know that spell’s gonna be a lot longer than two and a half months.

From what I can see, a goodly portion of the populace around here don’t take any of this very seriously. Quarantine isn’t going to be very effective if a quarter of the population shrugs it off.