NICS Numbers for July, 2023, Fifth Highest gun sales, Sixth Highest Background Checks

Lines are for 2022 numbers, bars are for 2023 numbers

The National Instant Background Check System (NICS) show another slide in gun sales and background checks for July of 2023. According to my calculations, the gun sales for July of 2023 have dropped 17.8% from July of 2022. The NICS total back ground checks declined about 16.8% from July of 2022. July of 2023 comes in fifth for total gun sales of all July numbers since 1999, and sixth in NICS background check numbers since 1999, which was the start of the NICS system.

The number of gun sales calculated come to about .98 million. The National Shooting Sports Foundation NSSF has released their estimates for gun sales in July. There is uncertainty in determining how many background checks translate to gun sales. This correspondent’s calculations and the NSSF numbers are reasonably close. From the NSSF:

The July 2023 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,023,903 is a decrease of 17.0 percent compared to the July 2022 figure of 1,233,115. For comparison, the unadjusted July 2023 FBI NICS figure 1,987,650 reflects a 15.7 percent decrease from 2,358,150 in July 2022. July 2023 marks the 48th month in a row, four years, that has exceeded 1 million adjusted background checks in a single month.

While the .98 million falls below one million in a month by this correspondent’s calculations, the NSSF adjustment shows gun sales of over a million for 48 months straight. It represents a new normal in firearms sales based on increasing numbers of gun owners.

In some segments of the firearms market supply may be overcoming demand. As that happens, prices drop.  There are perfectly good AR-15 rifles on the market for less than $400. The price when the first AR-15 rifles were offered to the public by Colt in 1964, was $189.50. Dollars in 1964 were worth much more than they are today. A dollar in 1964 was worth about $9.84 of todays dollars. The comparable price of the Colt AR-15 today would be $1,865. Effectively, we can purchase rifles comparable to the first Colt AR-15 rifles for one fourth the earning power it took in 1964. This is because the initial costs in development have been amortized and the productivity of men and machines has increased enormously in the last 60 years. If the purchaser is willing to forego any warranty, and purchase a complete lower receiver, which requires a NICS check, and a complete upper receiver on sale,  one may obtain an AR-15 rifle, sans sights and magazine, for about $300. This is an amazing bargain.

One of the reasons for sales of a million guns a month is simple. Guns are relatively cheap compared to decades past.  Ammunition is similarly less expensive in the number of hours worked to purchase cartridges. An obvious exception are surplus military cartridges. In times past, they have often been available at far below the cost of production. Increasing numbers of gun owners and the continued uncertainty in domestic politics and international affairs are part of the reason for continued gun sales of about a million guns a month. The latest addition of a million guns sold in July of 2023 brings the estimate of the total stock of private firearms in the United States of America to 498 million. Barring some unexpected and extreme event, the private stock of firearms in the United States will reach half a billion in 2023.

©2023 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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