Ready to Swing the Other Way
Three weeks ago I noted in “Man the Lifeboats” that although I was bullish on gold (and other precious metals) in the long run, the trade had gotten very “crowded” and the metals were (over)due for a pullback. Since then, the sector has come a bit unglued, with the price of gold falling about 10 percent through this afternoon.
That said, while I have very different views about the bond market’s longer-term prospects, the way in which gold and U.S. Treasurys have tracked each other this year [see chart] amid a frantic scramble for “safe haven” assets made me wonder if we are poised for a similarly dramatic fall in bond prices (which move inversely to yields) in the period ahead.
Given the Fed’s plan to buy long-term bonds announced earlier this week, that would be rather unexpected, to say the least.
Of course, just because the two markets have been somewhat in synch for the past nine months or so doesn’t mean they are destined to stay that way. But with yields at the unsustainably low levels they are now, and with so many people convinced that an aggressive central bank and a weak economy can only be viewed as bullish, the contrarian in me can’t help but think that things are about to swing the other way.
Read more at Financial Armageddon
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