The Big Success Story: North Dakota’s Staggering Growth
Eager to find bright spots in the dismal US economy, journalists are flocking — paparazzi-style — to the unlikeliest of states. Why? Well, by now we all know North Dakota’s economy performed well through the recession and continues to chug along. Story after story lauds the growth. Perhaps it will all inspire other regions, states, and industries to somehow take off. However you want to look at it, it’s just nice to have something nice to talk about after so many months of bad news.
To augment the many stories, we explored EMSI’s employment data for North Dakota to help us drill in a bit deeper.
TRENDS IN NORTH DAKOTA
First, during the economic downturn, North Dakota has seen a 6.4% increase in jobs, compared to a decline of 3.2% for the nation.
The table below shows the state’s industry growth from 2007 to 2011. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction grew by 181% and 11,500 jobs. This sector has clearly catalyzed economic activity by drawing in new workers and kicking other more service-oriented sectors into high gear. This is a fantastic illustration of why “basic industries” like mining and manufacturing are so important (see here for more discussion on the importance of basic industries). They export goods and import new dollars that cycle in the local economy and create new economic opportunities. It is also interesting to note that 16 out of 20 broad industry categories (2-digit NAICS) actually grew from 2007-2011.
| NAICS Code | Description | 2007 Jobs | 2011 Jobs | Change | % Change | 2011 Earnings | 2010 Establishments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction | 6,352 | 17,869 | 11,517 | 181% | $89,686 | 353 |
| 62 | Health Care and Social Assistance | 56,196 | 60,353 | 4,157 | 7% | $43,561 | 1,774 |
| 42 | Wholesale Trade | 20,327 | 23,317 | 2,990 | 15% | $62,616 | 2,343 |
| 23 | Construction | 27,914 | 30,859 | 2,945 | 11% | $52,433 | 3,089 |
| 72 | Accommodation and Food Services | 31,524 | 34,057 | 2,533 | 8% | $15,411 | 1,865 |
| 48-49 | Transportation and Warehousing | 17,121 | 19,485 | 2,364 | 14% | $59,497 | 1,605 |
| 52 | Finance and Insurance | 22,011 | 24,108 | 2,097 | 10% | $48,168 | 1,780 |
| 90 | Government | 79,070 | 81,005 | 1,935 | 2% | $53,566 | 1,917 |
| 54 | Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services | 18,681 | 20,037 | 1,356 | 7% | $49,986 | 2,139 |
| 53 | Real Estate and Rental and Leasing | 14,170 | 15,155 | 985 | 7% | $24,956 | 795 |
| 81 | Other Services (except Public Administration) | 22,578 | 23,458 | 880 | 4% | $25,709 | 1,880 |
| 71 | Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation | 6,549 | 7,077 | 528 | 8% | $14,087 | 410 |
| 55 | Management of Companies and Enterprises | 4,273 | 4,642 | 369 | 9% | $78,064 | 115 |
| 22 | Utilities | 3,381 | 3,731 | 350 | 10% | $107,027 | 127 |
| 44-45 | Retail Trade | 54,130 | 54,406 | 276 | 1% | $27,191 | 3,051 |
| 61 | Educational Services | 5,810 | 6,009 | 199 | 3% | $22,995 | 143 |
| 11 | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting | 35,256 | 34,844 | (412) | (1%) | $48,210 | 641 |
| 51 | Information | 8,413 | 7,980 | (433) | (5%) | $56,193 | 397 |
| 56 | Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services | 17,440 | 15,945 | (1,495) | (9%) | $24,935 | 1,185 |
| 31-33 | Manufacturing | 27,336 | 24,764 | (2,572) | (9%) | $56,248 | 812 |
| Total | 478,531 | 509,103 | 30,572 | 6% | $44,932 | 26,421 | |
| Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2011.3 | |||||||
Similarly, here is a quick look at the broad occupational categories for North Dakota. Not surprisingly, construction and extraction occupations have experienced the most overall growth (over 9,000 jobs and 34% growth). Only three broad sectors actually experienced decline from 2007-2011 during and directly after the recession.
| SOC Code | Description | 2007 Jobs | 2011 Jobs | Change | % Change | 2011 Median Hourly Wage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47-0000 | Construction and extraction occupations | 27,012 | 36,226 | 9,214 | 34% | $20.07 |
| 53-0000 | Transportation and material moving occupations | 30,925 | 34,740 | 3,815 | 12% | $15.80 |
| 43-0000 | Office and administrative support occupations | 63,636 | 65,711 | 2,075 | 3% | $13.33 |
| 35-0000 | Food preparation and serving related occupations | 32,568 | 34,615 | 2,047 | 6% | $9.18 |
| 11-0000 | Management occupations | 52,931 | 54,946 | 2,015 | 4% | $20.93 |
| 49-0000 | Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations | 18,411 | 20,283 | 1,872 | 10% | $18.41 |
| 13-0000 | Business and financial operations occupations | 16,509 | 18,324 | 1,815 | 11% | $19.42 |
| 29-0000 | Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations | 20,409 | 21,868 | 1,459 | 7% | $26.05 |
| 25-0000 | Education, training, and library occupations | 24,397 | 25,668 | 1,271 | 5% | $22.29 |
| 41-0000 | Sales and related occupations | 58,521 | 59,759 | 1,238 | 2% | $11.79 |
| 39-0000 | Personal care and service occupations | 20,448 | 21,530 | 1,082 | 5% | $9.47 |
| 31-0000 | Healthcare support occupations | 13,488 | 14,427 | 939 | 7% | $11.61 |
| 17-0000 | Architecture and engineering occupations | 5,181 | 5,741 | 560 | 11% | $27.00 |
| 27-0000 | Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations | 9,811 | 10,166 | 355 | 4% | $10.84 |
| 19-0000 | Life, physical, and social science occupations | 4,184 | 4,533 | 349 | 8% | $19.25 |
| 21-0000 | Community and social services occupations | 6,824 | 7,153 | 329 | 5% | $14.71 |
| 15-0000 | Computer and mathematical science occupations | 5,766 | 6,059 | 293 | 5% | $22.61 |
| 37-0000 | Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations | 17,917 | 18,114 | 197 | 1% | $9.93 |
| 23-0000 | Legal occupations | 2,015 | 2,204 | 189 | 9% | $23.11 |
| 33-0000 | Protective service occupations | 5,711 | 5,861 | 150 | 3% | $16.12 |
| 45-0000 | Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations | 5,371 | 5,291 | (80) | (1%) | $11.49 |
| 55-0000 | Military Occupations | 11,403 | 11,205 | (198) | (2%) | $15.81 |
| 51-0000 | Production occupations | 25,094 | 24,679 | (415) | (2%) | $15.29 |
| Total | 478,531 | 509,103 | 30,572 | 6% | $15.92 | |
| Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2011.3 | ||||||
In the chart below we have laid out some broad state detail. The state’s population grew by 34,000 from 2007-2011, and the many recent stories about the abundance of jobs is only going to drive that much higher. There are currently about 509,000 jobs in the state with an average earnings of $45,000 per year. Compared to the nation, this is low, but based on what we are hearing about the new jobs, those wage levels should be rising sharply in the coming years.
SUPPORT ACTIVITIES FOR MINING
Now lets go a bit deeper to see the specific sectors where the most rapid growth and demand are occurring. One of the fastest-growing industries is “support activities for mining” (NAICS 21311). Using Analyst, EMSI’s web-based labor market tool, we are able to see lots of important detail for this sector.
From 2007-2011, support activities for mining grew by 245.8% in North Dakota, compared to 14.5% across the nation. It’s also 10 times more concentrated in North Dakota as compared to the nation, and the earnings are quite good.
HIGH DEMAND OCCUPATION: ROUSTABOUTS
Over 20% of the workers in this industry are roustabouts, which “assemble or repair oil field equipment using hand and power tools, and perform other tasks as needed.” This is followed by service unit operators, derrick operators, rotary drill operators, and helpers/extraction workers.
Roustabouts grew by 248% since 2007. Currently there are about 3,000 people in this occupation, with 2,400 of them working in the support activities for mining sector. Roughly 94% of the folks who work in this sector are male. They tend to fall in the 25-44 age category, and 47% of them have a high school diploma. The average earnings is $21 per hour. NOTE: Because of the rapid growth, these numbers could actually be low; EMSI’s 2010-2011 complete employment numbers, which include proprietors, are still estimates due to a lag in federal data sources.
COUNTY-BY-COUNTY GROWTH
Finally, we want to show how pervasive job growth is across the state. In the table below, we can see that almost every county in the state picked up jobs since 2007. Most impressively, Williams County added nearly 8,000 jobs and grew by over 50%.
| County | 2007 Jobs | 2011 Jobs | 4 Year Growth | % Growth | 2011 Average Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams, ND (38105) | 15,031 | 22,740 | 7,709 | 51% | $63,718 |
| Burleigh, ND (38015) | 65,632 | 69,668 | 4,036 | 6% | $43,044 |
| Cass, ND (38017) | 119,217 | 122,409 | 3,192 | 3% | $45,894 |
| Stark, ND (38089) | 17,315 | 20,447 | 3,132 | 18% | $49,760 |
| Ward, ND (38101) | 41,588 | 44,675 | 3,087 | 7% | $46,369 |
| Mountrail, ND (38061) | 3,360 | 5,499 | 2,139 | 64% | $57,101 |
| McKenzie, ND (38053) | 4,375 | 5,951 | 1,576 | 36% | $56,091 |
| Bottineau, ND (38009) | 4,442 | 5,108 | 666 | 15% | $40,633 |
| McLean, ND (38055) | 5,249 | 5,845 | 596 | 11% | $46,820 |
| Dunn, ND (38025) | 1,775 | 2,323 | 548 | 31% | $48,025 |
| Mercer, ND (38057) | 6,414 | 6,932 | 518 | 8% | $62,438 |
| Barnes, ND (38003) | 7,758 | 8,234 | 476 | 6% | $37,129 |
| Stutsman, ND (38093) | 14,479 | 14,936 | 457 | 3% | $43,450 |
| Morton, ND (38059) | 11,211 | 11,633 | 422 | 4% | $42,935 |
| Benson, ND (38005) | 3,374 | 3,780 | 406 | 12% | $40,995 |
| Oliver, ND (38065) | 1,185 | 1,531 | 346 | 29% | $74,418 |
| Renville, ND (38075) | 1,607 | 1,850 | 243 | 15% | $41,310 |
| Burke, ND (38013) | 1,567 | 1,797 | 230 | 15% | $47,137 |
| Bowman, ND (38011) | 2,386 | 2,586 | 200 | 8% | $41,315 |
| Billings, ND (38007) | 764 | 944 | 180 | 24% | $48,553 |
| LaMoure, ND (38045) | 2,529 | 2,694 | 165 | 7% | $38,164 |
| McHenry, ND (38049) | 2,785 | 2,907 | 122 | 4% | $33,973 |
| Hettinger, ND (38041) | 1,610 | 1,730 | 120 | 7% | $34,466 |
| Steele, ND (38091) | 1,249 | 1,363 | 114 | 9% | $41,783 |
| Foster, ND (38031) | 2,400 | 2,512 | 112 | 5% | $42,371 |
| Nelson, ND (38063) | 2,075 | 2,167 | 92 | 4% | $34,858 |
| Slope, ND (38087) | 481 | 568 | 87 | 18% | $60,313 |
| Kidder, ND (38043) | 1,785 | 1,865 | 80 | 4% | $38,551 |
| Sioux, ND (38085) | 2,249 | 2,329 | 80 | 4% | $42,461 |
| Griggs, ND (38039) | 1,908 | 1,984 | 76 | 4% | $35,366 |
| Golden Valley, ND (38033) | 1,169 | 1,245 | 76 | 7% | $35,242 |
| Logan, ND (38047) | 1,468 | 1,542 | 74 | 5% | $33,234 |
| Ramsey, ND (38071) | 7,965 | 8,038 | 73 | 1% | $37,092 |
| Adams, ND (38001) | 1,754 | 1,825 | 71 | 4% | $35,592 |
| Divide, ND (38023) | 1,549 | 1,617 | 68 | 4% | $36,444 |
| Sheridan, ND (38083) | 819 | 878 | 59 | 7% | $29,242 |
| Grant, ND (38037) | 1,609 | 1,654 | 45 | 3% | $32,135 |
| Pierce, ND (38069) | 3,009 | 3,052 | 43 | 1% | $34,150 |
| Towner, ND (38095) | 1,756 | 1,769 | 13 | 1% | $36,767 |
| Walsh, ND (38099) | 7,582 | 7,571 | (11) | 0% | $40,666 |
| Cavalier, ND (38019) | 3,043 | 3,031 | (12) | 0% | $38,606 |
| Emmons, ND (38029) | 2,228 | 2,211 | (17) | (1%) | $36,049 |
| Ransom, ND (38073) | 3,546 | 3,521 | (25) | (1%) | $37,935 |
| Wells, ND (38103) | 3,087 | 3,061 | (26) | (1%) | $34,471 |
| Richland, ND (38077) | 11,152 | 11,121 | (31) | 0% | $40,554 |
| Eddy, ND (38027) | 1,390 | 1,332 | (58) | (4%) | $34,089 |
| McIntosh, ND (38051) | 1,957 | 1,877 | (80) | (4%) | $36,611 |
| Pembina, ND (38067) | 5,492 | 5,396 | (96) | (2%) | $47,345 |
| Traill, ND (38097) | 4,490 | 4,378 | (112) | (2%) | $41,105 |
| Grand Forks, ND (38035) | 51,883 | 51,750 | (133) | 0% | $42,406 |
| Dickey, ND (38021) | 3,943 | 3,804 | (139) | (4%) | $34,673 |
| Rolette, ND (38079) | 6,501 | 6,296 | (205) | (3%) | $40,654 |
| Sargent, ND (38081) | 3,337 | 3,123 | (214) | (6%) | $45,692 |
| Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2011.3 | |||||
CONCLUDING REMARK
So we are seeing a great boom in North Dakota, which means that it will most likely fade at some point. However, right now, the state is using the boom to build a strong economy, which will quickly create new opportunities in other sectors. We want to invite you to keep exploring this data, so please comment or respond if you have questions or would like to look at more data for this state or others.
Follow or contact us via Twitter @desktopecon.
Read more at Economic Modeling Specialists (EMSI blog)
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