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Updated GDP Forecast for 2012-Q2 and a Peek at Q3

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Since the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the data we use to project future GDP for the U.S., we’re updating our forecast accordingly from what we had previously posted:

Going by our preferred Modified Limo forecasting technique, we now see a 50% probability that real GDP in 2012-Q2 will be finalized at a value over $13,608.0 billion, and a 50% probability that it will be finalized under that level.

The BEA’s first advance estimate for the quarter is $13,558.0 billion, so at present, it appears that we overshot the target by 0.37%, although we are still within our originally projected forecast range (where we had given a 68.2% probability of that 2012-Q2 real GDP would fall between $13,367.7 billion and $13,649.9 billion in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars.

Peeking ahead, using the BEA’s first estimate of 2012-Q2′s GDP (they will “finalize” the estimate for the quarter with their third estimate in September 2012), we would project real GDP in 2012-Q3 to be roughly $13,617.1 billion in the inflation-adjusted terms of chained 2005 U.S. dollars, with a 68.2% probability of falling between $13,475.3 billion and $13,758.9 billion.

All-in-all, that suggests a pretty lackluster GDP growth rate is in store for the third quarter of 2012.



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