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Scotland's Independence Would Ignite Secessionist Movements Worldwide

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[The following post is by TDV Chief Editor, Jeff Berwick]

Secessionist movements have gained in popularity in recent years as the global economic crisis persists and as people awaken to the fact they are owned by people often thousands of miles away. Making headlines most recently is a movement in Scotland seeking independence from London and the United Kingdom (UK).  Whatever way Scots vote on Thursday, the seeds have been sown for a Scotland that will, in the future, become increasingly independent (at least mentally).

Whether Scotland votes yes or no Thursday is still an unknown. The race is reportedly in a dead heat. The media is arguing across the spectrum that independence for Scotland would bring turmoil to the region as if the UK has navigated the economic crisis unharmed.

The media wants to drive home this following point: A yes vote will render Scotland a powerless state with crushing debt and no financial infrastructure, because all of that infrastructure will head south. The European Union will shun Scotland as will NATO and the US. Paul Krugman added to the fear: “Be afraid, be very afraid” the amateur economist wrote. The Scots have a bit of anxiety, but the fear factor is overplayed. 

Nonetheless, the Scottish are investing in physical gold. Purchases of gold rose by 42% over the past two weeks, according to BullionVault.com. CoinInvest also saw a “significant upturn” in UK trading.

“As we can not see a similar trend in our other markets, we can only assume that Scotland has been a significant factor.” Director Daniel Marburger confirmed this:

“Our August and September UK gold sales are already up by 20% when compared to the same period in June and July this year and there are still two weeks to go until the end of September. Sales of silver in August are also up by more than 25pc. Given that global uncertainty in the Middle East and the Ukraine does not seem to have had a significant impact on gold and silver demand in the rest of our markets over the last two months, we believe that Thursday’s referendum for Scottish independence has had a notable effect on demand in the UK.”

A modest uptick in precious metals demand is not betokening of a full-scale bank run. Evidence does show that Scotland-based investors are seeking to move money out of Scottish banks. Reports have appeared of people crossing the border to open accounts in northern England. Banks say they will leave Scotland after a yes vote.  Swiss lender UBS said bank depositors would withdraw money from banks in Scotland immediately after a “yes” vote in favor of independence. As we saw in the 20th century, every monetary and political break-up  “without exception” has been preceded by a “sudden deposit transfer” from one part of the union to another, global economist at UBS investment bank Paul Donovan points out.

“In the wake of a yes vote, we think there will be a deposit transfer from Scotland to England,” he said.

“I think there would be almost immediate concern, a scramble on the part of bank depositors to find out whether their sort code is Scottish or British and people would be looking to have their money domiciled in Britain,” Donovan said.

A “yes” vote in Scotland would be “considerable economic turbulence” according to Credit Suisse analysts. Deutsche Bank’s chief economist David Folkers-Landau said a yes vote could mean “negative consequences far beyond what voters and politicians could have imagined” and would “go down in history as a political and economic mistake”.

Interestingly, the free market crypto-anarchists are trying to come to the rescue again.

The Scotcoin project is one such proposal.  Set up by Derek Nisbet, an Edinburgh-based venture capitalist, the cryptocurrency is offering 1,000 Scotcoins to every resident adult of Scotland – as well as bigger allocations for businesses, charities and start-ups, to boost the economy.

Nisbet said, “There is so much uncertainty with the current financial situation, that introducing a voluntary cryptocurrency, which may in the future act as a medium of exchange for the Scottish people, can only benefit them should there be major disruption.”

The “No” vote has a narrow lead as I write, but the winds of secessionism are strong these days. We’ve written here before in The Dollar Vigilante (TDV) Blog on secessionism’s new popularity:

Sales of bumper stickers reading “Secede” – one for $2, or three for $5 – have increased at TexasSecede.com. In East Texas, a Republican official sent out an e-mail newsletter saying it was time for Texas and Vermont to each “go her own way in peace” and sign a free-trade agreement among the states.  A petition calling for secession filed by a Texas man on a White House website has received tens of thousands of signatures. The Obama administration will be tasked with issuing a response. Larry Scott Kilgore plans to run for governor of Texas in 2014, with a main goal to secede.

New Hampshire has its own independence movement. California and Oregon do, also, in the form Jefferson State. Although the goal of Jefferson State is not to secede from the US, the independence-mindedness of the movement is significant. In time it could become secessionist not only from Sacramento and Salem but from Washington, DC.

Venice wants independence from Italy, just as Catalonia has attempted to be independent of Spain. Bavaria has sought similar and has its own local currencies to show for it. Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal, if they left the European Union, would have to establish their own regional currencies and grow their economies, creating competition for the European Central Bank and other nation-states. Scotland cut ties with England, and a current split of Belgium into Flemish and Walloon entities only fan the flames of independence movements throughout the west, including the US and Canada.

Scotland’s vote on Thursday is merely a heartening symptom of a global trend: towards decentralization. Unrest and dissatisfaction with the current political and monetary system is increasing globally, and this portends independence movements.

THE ANARCHIST TAKE ON SECESSION

The anarchist position is that there should be no violent, involuntary, centralized power.  Because of that, anarchists look positively upon any region which decentralizes its power as is the potential case in Scotland.  The goal is to eventually see every state in each country become sovereign, then every city… and eventually 7 billion sovereign “governments” on Earth.  The anti-thesis of this is what The Powers That Be (TPTB) are pushing, one giant government that governs the entire world.

If Scotland does secede from the UK… and we always say here, “If at first you don’t secede, try try again”, it does not necessarily mean that Scotland will be all that much freer than it was before if it chooses to remain within an even bigger and more centralized power, the European Union.  If Scotland does secede from both the UK and the EU, however, then it will be a sovereign country.  And that would be better than what it is today and we would heartily support it.

Having some Scottish family history, as can be seen by my surname, Berwick (which means barley farmer), and having some past familial relations from the area known as Berwick Upon Tweed (which is actually now in England a few miles south of the Scottish border) I am glad to see the spirit of sovereignty and freedom is still alive in that region… I just hope they realize that freedom doesn’t stop with just seceding from England but seceding from any centralized, involuntary form of control.

In that respect I stand with another Scottish icon, Groundskeeper Willie!

In the past, people of Scotland have had to physically fight and die to fend off the control of England as is portrayed in this well known speech from Braveheart.

The speech ends with, “They can take our lives but they can never take away our freedom!”… Today, the English aren’t taking anyone’s lives physically and all it takes to remove their control is the ticking of a box.  

We’ll see if the people of the region known as Scotland have even the will to so easily remove one level of their centralized power tomorrow.

Comments on the Scotland referendum? Join us at The Dollar Vigilante TDV Blog.


Source: http://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/2014/9/16/scotlands-independence-would-ignite-secessionist-movements-w.html#6537


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