Did you ever notice, people that wake up with a feeling of gloom seem to spread it to others? Now imagine if the country was in a major depression. Do you think government is going to point out the fact?
Depressions are self-fulfilling. The acceptance of the fact that you are in one, tends to exacerbate it. One tends to save more and spend less in anticipation of bad times that may lie ahead. Most politicians are doing the correct thing by not acknowledging the economic mess, it would only make things worse.
Obama in Detroit today shown in a car plant, said sales were up and things were getting better. Detroit is a city where they are tearing down so many houses that they want to rezone 60 acre portions into farm land. I not sure how true that is, but the Paul Bunyan folklore story tellers are known to be from around here and they tend to stretch the truth a bit.
So, everything is just great. The only problem is that the rest of the world is on life support. And it is getting worse. Europe could barely afford to finance their health care plans for their populations. Now they have 20 million immigrants that have no place to go. The support institutions of Europe will not be able to meet the demands put upon them. And nobody will believe that until it happens.
We have unrest in several Middle Eastern countries and with the price of oil falling out of bed, there is no support for the poor. Farmers can’t plant in war torn areas. People are fleeing to areas where there are so many refugees that there is a guaranteed impossibility of employment.
The only part of the global economy that governments cannot really control is the stock market. This world market has kind of taken on a mind of its own lately. We are not sure of where it is going tomorrow, but it doesn’t look good for the long run. We do know one thing, in 1929 most of the investors were individuals. In today’s market, most of the investors are fund managers. They need to keep in the market, to have a reason to keep their job, as a fund manager. For that reason, I don’t see a panic, just a very continuous steep sell off into oblivion. Plus, your stock fund manager isn’t old enough to have ever experienced a bear market. And naturally, there will be one or two spectacular “recoveries” on the way to the bottom. Where to from here? Not sure. We have been here before in history, I’m sure of it. The only trouble is; you can only see the outcome from the rear view mirror.
I think we have time to go back to the snack bar and get a refill on the popcorn, you won’t miss much of the movie even if you really wanted to see it.
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