Week In Review – August 17

Summary

• Turkey continues to get crushed across the board with 10-year blowing out another 40 bps on the week to over 21 percent
• EM bond markets hammered
• S. credit continues to behave well
• Euro periphery spreads widening with Italy out to 282 bps over Bunds
• EM FX weaker led by South Africa
• The dollar index closed above crucial 50% weekly Fibo (see chart), recovering half of the 15 percent correction from January 2017 to February 2018
• Global stocks weaker; the U.S. closed higher, however
• Fewer and fewer country ETFs are green on the year
• Lumber bouncing after vicious bear market
• Crude weaker
• No shine for the metals with copper now down 20 percent YTD

Commentary:   Just back to the desk and have been out of touch.  It looks like we may be wrong on our call in Q1 U.S. stocks had entered a bear market — the S&P500 index is now less than 1 percent from an all-time high.  Nevertheless, we still don’t like equities – unless for a trade, and that is becoming exceedingly difficult to make money — here and expect volatility to spike beginning in September through rest of year.  See our post, Feels Like 1997.