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S&P 500 Touches New High As Fed Sets Course of Inaction

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The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) bounced up to reach a new high closing value of 2,945.83 on Tuesday, 30 April 2019, before dipping back on the next two trading days and finally closing a fraction of a point below that level on Friday, May 2019.

The level of the S&P 500 is consistent with investors focusing on the distant future quarter of 2020-Q1 in setting current day stock prices, which in our dividend futures-based model of how stock prices work, covers the period from 21 December 2018 through 20 March 2020, coinciding with the dividend futures contracts for that quarter.

That view is also consistent with where the expectations of future rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have shifted during the past week, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s announcement and subsequent communication that the U.S. central bank sees no need to change its target for short term interest rates in the U.S. either at this time or through 2019.

That was, by far, the biggest news of the trading week that ended on Friday, 3 May 2019, where we flagged the following headlines as particularly noteworthy for their influence in setting the forward-looking focus of investors.

Monday, 29 April 2019
  • IMF’s Lagarde expects U.S. and China to reach trade deal
  • S&P 500 posts high, extends 2019 rally; Alphabet falls late
  • Tuesday, 30 April 2019
  • Speaking of stimulus:
  • S&P 500 posts best four-month run in nearly nine years; Apple jumps after hours
  • Wednesday, 1 May 2019
  • U.S. Fed sees no strong case for hiking or cutting rates
  • Wall Street drops after Fed chair dampens rate-cut hopes
  • Thursday, 2 May 2019
    Friday, 3 May 2019
  • Wall St. climbs as jobs data supports upbeat economic outlook
  • Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz outlined the positives and negatives he found in the week’s news for U.S. markets and the economy. There are seven of each this week, with the negatives pointing toward some degree of economic deceleration.


    Source: https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2019/05/s-500-touches-new-high-as-fed-sets.html


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