The Night the Red Light Went Out in Georgia?

Is Roxane about to put off the Republican red light in Georgia?

Stunning New Poll In Georgia

It is not over yet but the latest polling data from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is nothing less than stunning.   A Republican presidential candidate has only lost twice in the past 40 years:  to Bill Clinton by less than one percent as Ross Perot took 13 percent of the vote in 1992.  and to the hometown boy, Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Pelosi Net Favorability Higher Than Trump And McConnell

What really caught our attention in the poll is that, though the data illustrate the national politicians are not popular in Georgia, Nancy Pelosi’s net favorability numbers are higher than both Trump and Mitch McConnell:  Pelosi -6,  Trump -13.7, and McConnell -17.1.

Polling Internals

The poll’s internals confirms what we have been tracking before 2018 mid-terms:  1) Women make up the majority of registered voters and are more likely to vote than men,  2) Trump’s approval rating remains consistently 20-30 points underwater with women (see above chart), even in Georgia and these data are pretty much set in stone no matter where the Dow or the unemployment rate will be in November 2020, and 3) Ditto for younger voters, under the age of 45 years old, where Trump consistently polls almost 30 points underwater.  Yes, even in Georgia.  If they show up at the polls in 2020,  which is highly likely as they did in the 2018 mid-term, POTUS will be renamed Donald Thumped.

Finally,   Trump is polling behind almost all the leading Democratic candidates but only Biden’s lean is outside the margin of error.   With one year to go in the horse race, these data are pretty much meaningless but are an eye-opener.

Trump’ National Daily Tracking Poll

While we are at it, let’s take a look at the latest daily presidential tracking poll from IPOS.

It is clear impeachment is taking its toll on the President’s approval ratings and his disapproval in pushing up toward that magical 60 percent level where some say Republicans will begin to panic.  We look beyond the headline and like to dig deeper into the data to look at those who strongly approve and strongly disapprove, which are less likely to move than say, “somewhat”, “lean”, “slightly,” which are squishy and not bankable.  President Trump is more underwater, 21 points in the “strongly” category than the 19 points in the totals.  Not positive.

Taking Candy From A Baby

If you think people make all the wrong emotional moves in trading, do your homework and make some political bets.  Put your political bias aside and study the data, it’s like taking candy from a baby.   

Recall, our post the day the Mueller Report was released,

We’re not making a political statement or being partisan but just trying to give our readers a heads up on the results of our brief analysis and how we see it playing out.  The odds of impeachment have gone from around 6:1 to 4:1 in the past two weeks.

We expect the market price at PredictIt to move up another 30-50 percent in the next few weeks, or 3:1 odds for impeachment.  Don’t think your gonna make that in Amazon in two weeks, though the shares might get an impeachment bump. — GMM, April 18

We have been in and out of this trade as it did look like Trump was going to walk after Mueller testified.  The impeachment contract, if bought on April 18th, the day of our post, would have returned 225 percent to date, compared to Amazon’s -5.8 return.   The market now believes there is about an 80 percent probability POTUS will be impeached in his first term.

As a dog returns to its vomit, so fools repeat their folly. – King Solomon, Book of Proverbs

The very next day, we repeat, the very next day after Rober Mueller testified and POTUS thought he was off the hook – by the way, the Mueller Report documented the Trump campaign met with Russians over 100 times and the campaign expected to benefit from those meetings, that is collusion but not conspiracy —  he rings up the newly elected President of Ukraine on that “perfect phone call” asking for help in the 2020 campaign, which unravels into another political mess.

Our bet, with this POTUS, there are many more skeletons in the closet to come out in the next year.  Not a partisan statement, just our what our algorithm predicts based on past behavior.

Remember, Mr. Market thinks Trump will be re-elected.

“Right now, the market is assuming Donald Trump is reelected.”  – Leon Cooperman

Everything is awesome.  Stay tuned.