The Black Swan Chart Of 2020

The surprising outcome of the 2020 presidential election may be,

OK, Boomer.  It’s time to pass the torch of leadership to a new generation.   

The younger generations dwarf the boomers in terms of sheer numbers but they have a habit of not voting.   They may be changing, however, as it did in the 2018 midterm.

If the CNN chart below holds and plays itself out, the 2020 presidential election is going to be nothing less than stunning.    The pollsters are going to be way off the mark once again.

The national polls were pretty much spot on in 2016 with Clinton taking around 2-3 percent of the national vote.   Their models blew it by underestimating the state-level participation of certain voting groups.  They hadn’t modeled such a rush of first-time voters coming out of Appalachia, for example.

79 Percent Increase In 18-29-Year-Olds In 2018 Midterm

Look at charts that follow, which show younger voters, such as the 18-29-year-old cohort group increasing their turnout by 79 percent in 2018 versus the 2014 midterm, which, no doubt, helped contribute to the Blue Wave and the Democrats taking back the House in a big way.

If the following CNN chart is even close to reality in November,  there is going to be another huge surprise.

It doesn’t take a Ph.D. in political science which way it will break.

Even The Russians Are Concerned 

The last time the U.S. had a 70 percent voter turnout rate in a presidential election was in 1900 when William McKinley beat William Jennings Bryan by 51.6 to 45.5 percent in the popular vote and 292-155 in the electoral college.

The Russian military, who interfered in the 2016 presidential elections appears concerned about a large turnout and is gearing up.

Source: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/01/20/the-black-swan-chart-of-2020/