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COVID-19 Pandemic: The Complacent Are Clueless

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The eventual price of substituting magical thinking and survivorship bias for actual evidence will be far higher than the complacent realize.
Here’s a sampling of complacent assertions being made about the COVID-19 virus as if they were certitudes:
It’s no worse than a bad cold.
It’s less deadly than a normal flu.
You can’t catch it unless you’re in sustained close contact with a carrier.
Carriers are only contagious for 14 days. After that, you’re home free.
A vaccine is just around the corner.
The Chinese government has it under control.
Only 2,000 people have died, it’s no big deal.
The few cases in other countries are being managed, and it will soon disappear.
The pandemic will fade away by April due to rising temperatures.
China’s GDP will only take a 1% hit, and global growth will only drop 0.25%.
Interestingly, there is no large-scale, credible data to support any of these claims. But the complacent are not just falling for false claims being passed off as “facts” rather than what they really are–magical thinking–they’re making a much larger error known as Survivorship Bias.
The complacent are focusing on the few who have been tested for the virus, not the millions who haven’t been tested.
The complacent are focusing on the accurate tests, not the many carriers who tested negative or the healthy people incorrectly tagged by false positive tests. The complacent are overlooking the fact that multiple tests are needed to confirm and even multiple tests can fail.
The complacent are focusing on the few who went to the hospital to get tested and treated, not the multitudes who did not go to a doctor or hospital (for a variety of reasons).
The complacent are focusing on the few carriers who have been forcibly hauled off by Chinese police and not the many who have wisely hidden away from prying eyes.
The complacent are focusing on the few facilities with test kits, not on the multitude of clinics which do not have test kits.
The complacent are focusing on the few who have been identified as carriers in other nations, not the asymptomatic carriers who have not been identified because 1) they have no symptoms and thus no reason to get tested and 2) they chose not to go to a doctor or hospital despite having symptoms.
In effect, the complacent are focusing solely on the few carriers who are symptomatic and have been tested, not on the much larger number of asymptomatic carriers who have not been tested. The complacent are ignoring the highly contagious nature of COVID-19, and the impossibility of controlling a virus that can be spread by asymptomatic carriers for up to 24 days.
The complacent are assuming 100% of all carriers outside China have come forward and been identified as carriers via tests, when the reality is asymptomatic carriers don’t even know they are infected and contagious.
The complacent are assuming every healthcare facility in China has test kits in such abundance that they can test suspected carriers three times to confirm the diagnosis, when the reality is test kits are scarce and one test is not enough to make a reliable assessment. Carriers can test negative, positive and then negative.
The complacent are assuming casual contact isn’t enough to catch the virus while a rising tide of cases confirm that brief, casual contact is enough to get the virus.
The complacent are assuming 100% of symptomatic carriers will go to the hospital to be tested and treated, when an unknown but consequential number of symptomatic carriers are fearful of what will be done to them and their families by authorities, so they hide from prying neighbors and authorities.
The complacent are assuming that asking people if they recently visited China or hosted a visitor from China will identify 100% of the asymptomatic carriers, when there is already proof that asymptomatic carriers have caught the virus from others: they did not visit China or have any known contact with anyone who came from China. They caught the virus from an intermediary who didn’t even know they were infected.
The complacent are looking at cases and carriers that are known, not the cases and carriers which are unknown. Since asymptomatic carriers can spread the pathogen, the majority of carriers remain unknown. Since not every symptomatic carrier chooses to go to the hospital, many cases remain unknown.
In sum, the complacent are clueless. The eventual price of substituting magical thinking and survivorship bias for actual evidence will be far higher than the complacent realize. Playing games with statistics and high finance will not limit the spread of the virus or limit its profound economic impact.
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Source: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/02/covid-19-pandemic-complacent-are.html



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    • Anonymous

      There were some new deaths in Las Vegas due to the flu. There are zero deaths in the USA due to coronavirus. So, are we supposed to be afraid of something that is not here, or are we supposed to be afraid of something that IS here? What makes the most sense? Well, BINNERITES are literally afraid of everything so I guess I answered my own question.

    • jdpent01

      Its ALL TO FEUDAL to plan and plan in case of catastrophic event occurring, A. the Bible says neither your gold or silver will not save you!!, Yes, this is speaking of the Spiritual nature. Man can plan for future catastrophic events we do it all the time example: FEMA, FLOODS, HURRICANES, TORNADOES, EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANOES AND MORE, YES MORE THE BIBLE SAYS THE SUN WILL SCORCH MEN and in the South West we know what that means on a hot summer day in the shade of 120 degrees in the shade you can’t touch nothing without gloves. The dehydration process is maxed out. folks are using 1 gallon of water per hour, and may not know it. survive-ability out in the desert is near impossible without the maximum proper resources as like Alaska extreme weather conditions to contend with. Planning for such events also requires resources which may not be available, like housing protected from all the extreme elements, power, good water sewage facilities, food, oxygen-breathable air medicine, etc. a shelter for xxx people usually not more than two unless its military and having the knowledge of knowing where such a place is for any event. you will need stove, fridge firearm,storage space, to house and hold all supplies, bedding etc. So OK I got such a place its located 10 miles out of town and its ready to go. The Lord said not one mountain will be left the Earth will be shaken violently, CARS TRAFFIC JAMS MAY PRECLUDE GETTING THERE OR THE GROUND BE SO UNSTABLE ITS LIQUEFYING IN PLACE. There is a chance you will not make it to your prepared safety place you planned for., The only real planning we can do to day is SPIRITUAL GETTING READY TO MEET JESUS/GOD, TIME IS SHORT to do this one needs to BELIEVE He is who he said He is [I AND THE FATHER ARE ONE], JESUS WAS AND IS THE WORD OF GOD ALMIGHTY, was manifested into flesh lived and taught men Godly principals to live by the Roman history tells of him whom they crucified eons ago and of the wise men who came at his birth. To be able to meet him when he comes means, one must put on the WHOLE ARMOR of God, that is A believe He is and get BAPTIZED into him. Apostle Paul known as Saul was told to get Baptized to was off his Sins, for every man Sins either by Omission or Commission, this is unknowingly Sinning or knowing it to be Sin after we reach the age of accountability about 11-12 years of age. Its our only way to safety upon the end of days as decreed by God, There is going to be a taking away of christian peoples of all nations and tongues. What happens after the catastrophic event passes? those without looking at those who have, for a while your might be safe until someone finds you THEN THINGS HAPPEN. Mankind who is not God fearing God loving will make no bones at your demise, these robbers will be plenty. Look at Noah when the rains came they all pounded him to open the door of the boat, none of them listened during his 120 years of preaching, but now want immediate recognition and safety, or in Lots case the evil town people wanted the Angels in Lots house but he offered his virgin daughters they would not have it, so the Angels blinded the men at the door, and ordered Lot to escape. I would rather escape to be with the Lord than escape to a ‘place of mans safety’ for a short time. Face this will be a time of very harsh conditions WAR, DEATH, SICKNESS/PESTILENCE OF ALL KIND and you think Corona-virus is bad, whats coming may be much worse, as God’s two witness who preach repentance and God will cast out plagues upon the non believing until they are slain and dragged through the city 3 days then restored by God which bring fear upon the inhabitants of the land remaining. Where do you want to be during these times Answer in a more safe place than man can make or provide.THEREFORE, GET YOUR SELF AN ALL YOU KNOW BAPTIZED INTO CHRIST. When you do, your added TO HIS CHURCH AND BODY, receiving the seal of promise by the Holy Spirit, You have nothing to lose but your SOUL, as there are the three that make up he God head FATHER, SON AND HOLY SPIRIT, MAN IS MADE UP LIKEWISE MIND, BODY, SOUL, the soul is the breath of life God puts in each one. who is born of women. Therefore, live for the Lord every day in prayer the direct communication to Jesus the Christ and in kindness toward all

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