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How Many Cases of Covid-19 Will it Take for You to Decide Not to Frequent Public Places?

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As empty streets and shelves attest, people taking charge of risk has dire economic consequences.
 
How many cases of Covid-19 in your community will it take for you to decide not to frequent public places such as cafes, restaurants, theaters, concerts, etc? How many cases in your community will it take for you to decide not to take public transit, Uber/Lyft rides, etc.? How many cases in your community will it take for you to limit going to supermarkets and ask your boss to work at home?
 
One of the most unexamined aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic is the human psychology of risk assessment and fear. The default human response to novel threats such as the Covid-19 virus is denial and abstraction: it can’t happen here, it won’t happen to me, it’s no big deal, etc.
 
This careless denial of danger and urgency characterized the official response in China before the epidemic exploded and it characterizes the lackadaisical sloppiness of official response in the U.S.: few facilities have test kits, thousands of people who arrived on U.S. soil on direct flights from Wuhan have not been tested, confirmed carriers have been placed on flights with uninfected people, and the city of Costa Mesa, CA had to file a lawsuit to stop federal agencies from transferring confirmed carriers to dilapidated facilities that are incompatible with thorough quarantine protocols.
 
This lackadaisical sloppiness didn’t hinder the spread of the virus in China and it won’t hinder it in the U.S. That means each of us will eventually have to make our own risk assessments and decide to modify our routines and behaviors or not.
 
Hence the question: what’s your red line number? Do you stop going out to public places and gatherings when there’s ten confirmed cases in your community, or is your red line number 50 cases? Or is it 100?
 
For many people, even a handful of cases will be a tremendous shock because they were unrealistically confident that it can’t happen here. The realization that the virus is active locally and can be spread by people who don’t have any symptoms shatters the comfortable complacency and introduces a chilling reality: what was an abstraction is now real.
 
Human psychology is exquisitely attuned to risk once it moves from abstraction to reality. Why take a chance unless absolutely necessary? For many people, the first handful of local cases will be enough to cancel all exposure to optional public gatherings: cafes, bistros, theaters, concerts, etc.
 
Many others will decide to forego public transit, taxis and Uber/Lyft rides because who knows if the previous fare was an asymptomatic carrier?
 
If you doubt this impulse to over-reaction once abstraction gives way to reality, look at how quickly market shelves are stripped in virus-affected areas. Once we understand what rationalists might declare over-reaction is merely prudence when faced with difficult-to-assess dangers, we realize that there’s a bubble not just in the stock market and Big Tech but in complacency.
 
Once a consequential number of people decide to avoid public places and gatherings, streets become empty and all the businesses that depend on optional public mixing–cafes, bistros, restaurants, theaters, music venues, stadiums, etc. etc. etc.– dry up and blow away, even if officials maintain their careless denial of danger and urgency.
 
All the jobs in this vast service sector will suddenly be at risk, along with the survival of thousands of small businesses, many of which do not have the resources to survive weeks, much less months, of a sharp decline in business.
 
All the official reassurances won’t be worth a bucket of warm spit. After being assured the risk of the virus spreading in North America was “low,” the arrival of the virus will destroy trust in official assurances. People will awaken to the need to control their own risk factors themselves. And as empty streets and shelves attest, people taking charge of risk has dire economic consequences.
 
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Source: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/02/how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-it-take.html



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    Total 4 comments
    • Anonymous

      LOL – If You Assembled EVERY INFECTED CASE – IN THE WEST…. You Would REALLY Struggle To Fill Even An Average CINEMA
      - LOL x Many LOLs
      ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
      Yes and “IF” infected & IF symptoms do appear – 90%-95% Plus … likely So Mild – You Will Never Even Notice

      LETS GET INITIAL OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT CONFIRMATION (Fuller Details Lower Down on THE ACTUAL NUMBERS)
      ………….CANADIAN GOVERNMENT / HEALTH CANADA …………….

      QUOTE “coronaviruses are common …..and are typically associated ….with mild illnesses,
      similar to the common cold. (Unquote)

      QUOTE >>> Those who are infected with COVID-19 may >>>>have little to >>> NO symptoms.

      You may… NOT KNOW ……you have symptoms ….of COVID-19

      because they are similar to …. a COLD or flu. (UNQUOTE)

      https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/symptoms.html
      (& see Quotes At Bottom)
      …………………………………….…………….

      For the… very few …that do get infected noticeable symptoms, …. typical signs include

      - A RUNNY NOSE
      - A COUGH
      - A SORE THROAT / Fever (high temperature).

      The vast majority of patients – at least… 97 per cent, ….. based on available data – will recover from these
      >>>> without any issues or medical help.

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7987001/Death-toll-killer-coronavirus-10-TIMES-higher-average-Chinas-Hubei-province.html

      ………………………………………………….

      Its such a happy clappy insignificant symptoms virus – its about as pleasant as you could make – thank you to God or Whoever – good job.

      Lest We Forget ….. Ooooh 53 Suspected Cases Out Of 300 MILLION Americans – That’s ‘erm, well – nicely .… very significantly LESS than a PI$$ In The Ocean too really ….isn’t it

      And Based On How Things Have Gone In CHINA So Far – It A case Of >>>>
      …………………………………………………………………………………………….

      MOVE ALONG FOLKS – NOTHING TO SEE HERE – ALL OVER – JUST MOVE ALONG – GET ON WITH YOUR LIVES

      CHINA
      Yes 2,400 Died Of Caronavirous in 2 months (60 Days) – An Average >>> Really VERY TINY >> 40 Deaths A Day

      - Seasonal Flu Kills An Average 88,000 Per Year (Caronavirus Has Managed 2,400)

      - 7 MILLION Chinese Die Per Year – Caronavirus Has Accounted For 2,400

      And Studies/Reports State whilst there are only 80,000 Confirmed Infections – There Will be 10X that number
      - YES 3/4 MILLION + with Symptoms SO MILD – they Won’t EVEN NOTICE THEM
      ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

      So Move Along Folks – Everywhere Is Opening Up Again – Just Move Along Folks – It Was Just The Usual Fear PORN – Move Along …CONTINUED

      INTERNATIONAL NEWS CHANEL RT NEWS ….. Evidence …..Propaganda Fatigue ….Setting In

      Already Macau CHINA , the world’s biggest gambling hub, …..will allow casinos to resume operations from…. February 20,

      …. after authorities imposed a two-week suspension to curb the coronavirus’ spread, authorities said on Monday,

      Macau has not reported >>> any new cases of the virus>>> since February 4, … officials said.

      There have been >>>> ONLY 10 confirmed cases of the virus – in total there.

      Government services, which had mostly been suspended since the start of February, ….. have gradually resumed operations this week.

      https://www.rt.com/newsline/481005-macau-casinos-virus-fear/

      So Move Along Folk – Move Along – Nothing To see Here – Get On With Life – It’s All Over Folks 2,400 deaths and new cases plummeting – Predominantly Sick, Elderly, Immunocompromised, & usual already on their last legs ….. out of 1.3 BILLION CHINESE
      ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

      NB 10 February 2020 BLOOMBERG

      The new coronavirus might have infected….. at least 500,000 people in Wuhan, ….the Chinese city at the epicenter of the global outbreak, …..by the time it peaks in coming weeks.

      But…… most of those people…..>>>> won’t even know it.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-08/virus-outbreak-in-wuhan-may-soon-peak-with-more-than-5-infected
      …………………………………………….
      LOS ANGELES TIMES

      Thousands of people in China and elsewhere ….have been infected ….. but have had…

      >>>> such mild reactions that >>>> no one even noticed,

      - said Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

      https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-01-24/china-coronavirus-panic
      ……………………………………………………………………………………………..

      The UK’s BBC News COMMENTS – Re INFECTED – HAVING SUCH MILD REACTIONS >>> NO ONE NOTICED
      >>> FROM THE LARGEST STUDY TO DATE (The paper by the CCDC, released on Monday and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, looked at more than 44,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in China as of 11 February
      ………………………………….
      – So Known Infections Quoted In Study – 72,436 x 10 = 724,000 Who Will Have Had Symptoms – Too Mild – To Notice – YES >> ¾ Million
      …………………………………..
      QUOTE >>> Re The Known 72,436 infections
      - Scientists have estimated there could be …..10 times as many people infected ….. as are ending up in the official statistics.

      That ALSO means the….. overall death rate IN THE REST OF CHINA (Outside Hubei) is likely to be
      >>> lower than the 0.4% (rest of China) reported in this study (ie 10X LOWER – Making the death rate potentially ONLY 0.04)

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981
      ……………………………………………………………………..

      So Theres Proof Of Precedence – How This Caronavirus Runs

      So Ignore the PROPAGANDA FEAR PORN – ENGAGE BRAIN PUT COMMON SENSE IN GEAR & JUST PARTY ON !!

      Perhaps run a competition – 1st to find an infected person – with symptoms WINS
      ( Winner – lowest number of >>> DAYS – To Find one)

      • DK

        Until your family has COPD and the state runs out of AZT the only effective counter – you do know that its spliced with aids, and that treatment at the moment is full time life support.

        If all the US chinese and asians just got the Coronavirus, the US medical System would shut down – with just a 6% increase in demand.

        Also you have been spam posting on every article, this is the marker of an operation, come back when you have got the bug and tell us about your experiences.

    • frosty

      CDC Flu Season Estimates for the USA Oct 2019 through Feb 2020

      Illnesses 29,000,000 – 41,000,000
      Medical visits 13,000,000 – 19,000,000
      Hospitalizations 280,000 – 500,000
      Deaths 16,000 – 41,000

      Corona Virus USA since December
      illnesses 57
      Deaths 0

      Corona Virus Global since December
      Illnesses 80,419
      Deaths 2,710

      Something smells to high heaven with all the fear being pushed in our faces over the Corona virus.

      • Anonymous

        frosty, BIN lives on fear. BIN promotes fear. BIN loves fear.

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