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The Pandemic Isn't Ending, It's Just the Beginning of Global Disorder and Depression

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Oftwominds.com‘s eclectic range of timely topics include finance, economy, stocks, housing, Asia, energy, long-term trends, social issues, urban planning, work/tradecraft, health/diet/fitness, sustainability, Les Paul guitars and The Great Transformation ahead: www.oftwominds.com/blog.html.

When you’ve been lied to, you’ve been betrayed. Betrayal has consequences.
Unsurprisingly, denying the pandemic is unstoppable and consequential is the order of the day: authorities everywhere are terrified these realities might leak through all their oh-so-obviously desperate firewalls and filters. Why are they terrified? Because they know the entire global economy, including the linchpin Chinese and U.S. economies, was extremely fragile before the pandemic arose: why else the panic-stimulus and panic-repo policies of the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China in the pre-pandemic months of Q4 2019?
And so everything is covered up, and if that doesn’t work, then outright denial is the default policy. The number of cases globally is absurdly understated, the number of deaths in China is absurdly under-reported, and so on.
But the biggest denial campaign is aimed at masking the fragility of the global economy, as the only thing keeping the rickety, speculative-bubble, insolvent global economy from imploding is the belief and confidence of the masses that everything is going swimmingly, so keep on borrowing, borrowing, borrowing, buying, buying, buying and speculating, speculating, speculating.
While the real-world battle to limit the spread of the virus in China gets the headlines, the battle inside your head to maintain your confidence in the system is just as important. Economists talk about recession and depression in quantitative terms: deflation, sales, profits, employment and so on.
The key dynamic in recessions and depressions is confidence: confidence that the condo you buy today will be worth a lot more tomorrow, the business investment you make today will generate higher profits tomorrow, your job benefits will increase tomorrow, your house value will rise tomorrow, and so on.
Once confidence in ever-higher wages, benefits, sales, profits and speculative gains withers, all bets are off. The loss of confidence is akin to a loss of faith or loss of credibility: none of these can be restored overnight. Once your confidence that a speculative gamble will pay off is dashed, you’re not going to rush out to make the same gamble tomorrow.
Once your trust in authorities has been shattered by gross incompetence, authoritarian suppression and a laughably unbelievable tsunami of lies, you don’t wake up the next morning with your trust in bogus statistics and reassurances fully restored.
Once credibility has been destroyed by an endless parade of fabrications, lies and transparently false reassurances, your faith and trust that what you’re being told 24/7 is actually true is not magically restored.
Loss of confidence, trust, faith and credibility are self-reinforcing. Once you realize your speculative gamble is not just no longer going up but it’s crashing, you want out, not in. Once you see your neighbors going broke, you shut down your business before you lose everything.
Confidence doesn’t just evaporate; it’s replaced by uncertainty, anxiety and fear. Better safe than sorry becomes the implicit context: better to close now than gamble on a magical-thinking return to normalcy tomorrow. Better to go back to the ancestral village now rather than risk going back to work and becoming a victim of the “no big deal, just another flu” who ends up dead as a result of trusting the authorities’ reassurances.
The tragic irony is that Chinese authorities hid the epidemic to save political face, but their increasingly transparent lies and desperation are destroying what little international credibility remained after their attempt to save political face blew up. Rather than saving face, they’ve lost the last shreds of credibility they still possessed.
As for the Chinese people: how does it feel to know that the political optics matter so much more than your health and well-being?
Quarantining 400 million people in China still leaves a reservoir of 1 billion people in hundreds of small cities and towns and thousands of villages who may catch the virus from people who returned home from cities before they were locked down.
Here’s how contagious viruses spread: a traveler who has the virus but doesn’t yet have any symptoms rubs his nose beneath his mask and then takes the bus ticket and hands it to the driver. Then the traveler grabs the handrail in the bus, leaving viral particles. Later, in another bus station’s bathroom, he lifts his mask because it’s hot and uncomfortable and sneezes. Hundreds of other travelers pass through the bathroom within hours.
This is why those most familiar with epidemics and pandemics say that trying to control the spread of a highly contagious virus is like trying to control the wind.
The irony of all this is razor-sharp: the more authorities try to mask reality to maintain confidence, the more they destroy credibility, confidence, trust and faith. Once these intangibles are lost, the loss of confidence is self-reinforcing.
Depression isn’t just an economic number. It’s a self-reinforcing loss of confidence. Do you really think quarantining 400 million people will stop the pandemic? Based on what, other than magical thinking and the reassurances of authorities who’ve sacrificed all credibility?
Do you really think the Chinese economy can grind to a halt and absolutely nothing else in the global economy will be adversely impacted? Based on what, other than magical thinking and the reassurances of authorities who’ve sacrificed all credibility?
With the loss of trust and faith comes disorder. When you’ve been lied to, you’ve been betrayed. Betrayal has consequences.

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Source: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-pandemic-isnt-ending-its-just.html



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    Total 3 comments
    • Anonymous

      It never was, is or will be a Virus of concern – its all just standard Viral fear Porn Propaganda that we have seen before
      - same old playbook – different virus name
      - but this ones – a really weedy non event virus

      Proof ?? – Read On
      …………………………………

      Lets add some meat to the BONE as to Fear Porn

      Update 7/2 ZeroHedge
      Total cases stand at just 31,439 as death toll climbs to >>>> only 639
      • China claims the growth in people under medical observation ….has peaked, and is now slowing.
      • Germany confirms … 13th case
      • 2 suspected … cases found in South Africa
      • Dubai reports… 3rd death…. outside China

      Engage Brain & Activate Common Sense …. just 639 Deaths

      (as you will see in NY Times already sick & dying on their last breaths anyway)

      And QUOTE >>> 3rd (As in a huge 3) death outside China – 2 “Suspected” cases South Africa, Germany 13th case

      This Virus GLOBAL effect is so small, so tiny, as to be >>>> insignificant and totally irrelevant

      It’s All Hype & Balloney
      - Heres some 1st Feb >>> VERY TELLING FACTS – From The New York Times

      https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
      ………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

      How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get?
      Here Are 6 Key Factors
      By Knvul Sheikh, Derek Watkins, Jin Wu and Mika GröndahlUpdated >>>> Feb. 1, 2020

      As the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread across China, a flurry of early research is drawing
      >>>> a clearer picture of how the pathogen behaves

      1. How contagious is the virus?
      It seems …..moderately infectious,…. similar to SARS. (YAWN)

      2. How deadly is the virus?
      It’s hard to know yet. But the fatality rate is probably …..less than 3 percent, >>> much less than SARS. (YAWN)

      3. How long does it take to show symptoms?
      Possibly between 2 to 14 days, allowing the illness to go undetected.
      4. How much have infected people traveled?
      The virus spread quickly because it started in a transportation hub.
      5. How effective will the response be?
      The W.H.O. has praised China’s efforts, but critics fear lockdown measures may not be enough.
      6. How long will it take to develop a vaccine?
      A vaccine is still a year away — at minimum.

      While the virus is a serious public health concern,…… the risk to most people outside China …..remains very low,(YAWN)
      …….and seasonal flu is a more immediate threat. (DOUBLE YAWN)

      How contagious is the virus?
      It seems ….. moderately infectious, … similar to SARS. (YAWN)

      The scale of an outbreak depends on how quickly and easily a virus is transmitted from person to person. While research has just begun, scientists have estimated that each person with the new coronavirus could infect somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 people without effective containment measures.

      That would make the virus roughly as contagious as SARS, …….another coronavirus that circulated in China in 2003
      and was contained after
      it sickened >>>> JUST 8,098 people and >>>>> killed (ONLY) 774. (REALLY BIG YAWN)
      If each person infected with the new coronavirus infects two to three others, that ……may be enough to sustain… an outbreak (YAWN)

      How deadly is the virus?

      It’s hard to know yet. But the fatality rate is
      probably less than 3 percent, >>>> much less than SARS.

      “There’s still a lot of uncertainty about what this virus is like and what it is doing,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto, who was at the frontlines of the Canadian response to SARS.

      Early indications suggest the fatality rate for this virus is >>>> considerably less >>>>>than another coronavirus, MERS, which kills about…….. one in three people …..who become infected,

      and SARS, which kills …….. about one in 10.
      All of the diseases appear to latch on to proteins on the surface of lung cells,
      - but MERS and SARS ……seem to be more destructive to lung tissue.

      (ABOVE KILLED 1 In 3 & 1 in 10 !!!)

      HERE COME DE REALLY BIG BIG YAWNS

      As of Jan. 31, fewer than >>>>> 1 in 40
      >>>> of the people with confirmed infections had died.

      AND >>> Many of those who died were….. older men….. with underlying health problems.

      https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
      ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

      Quick in your face graphic from Zero Hedge – How This Irrelevant CoronaVirus Virus Stacks Up Against Previous Prapaganda Hyped Viruses (seasonal Flu -Sars – Mers – Ebola – H1N1 swine Flu)

      https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/Screen%20Shot%202020-02-06%20at%2012.57.56%20PM.png?itok=P1a7ta5D

    • Vertian

      The power of Prayer and Fasting moves Mountains , Prevents and stops wars, and much much more . Thank God we have Brothers that preform these things in great times of need.

    • Anonymous

      Here’s …….The National Post …..& Healthline
      Highlighting The NUMBER Of BULLSH!TTERS – Spreading >>>> THE FAKE PROPAGANDA FEAR PORN
      That They Are Referirng to …..

      EXPERT OPINION FROM – HEALTHLINE.COM
      The bottom line

      Extensive news coverage of the new coronavirus outbreak …. can make the situation
      >>> seem much worse …. than it actually is.

      >>> Influenza virus …. still causes>>>> far more >>> illness and death worldwide.

      EXPERTS also emphasize – that this outbreak >>>> is significantly …… less dangerous
      >>>> than previous….. coronavirus epidemics…. . like SARS and MERS.

      https://www.healthline.com/health-news/dont-freak-out-about-the-coronavirus-just-yet#The-bottom-line
      …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

      THE NATIONAL POST
      A recent article by University of Hong scientists published >>>>> by the journal Lancet states …..

      Based on the number of reported deaths when the paper was published Friday,
      Coronavirus would actually produce….. a mortality rate of >>>> just 0.2 per cent — akin to that >>> of regular influenzas.

      “We don’t freak out about seasonal flu, …..we experience it every year,”
      said Matthew Miller, a microbiologist who studies viruses at McMaster University.

      “The people most likely to die from seasonal flu are …….the elderly and the very young
      … The same is very likely to be true …….with this …… new coronavirus outbreak.
      The people who are at highest risk …..are the people at the highest risk >>>> for any type of infection.”

      https://nationalpost.com/health/new-coronavirus-may-be-no-more-dangerous-than-the-flu-despite-worldwide-alarm-experts

      So There You Have It – CoronaVirus – Ranks the lowest of the low, the bottom of the bottom
      in a weakest of the weak….. league of it’s own – when it comes to viral threat & dangers

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