29 April 2020 FOMC Meeting Minutes: Economic Outlook Dependent On the Course Of the Pandemic

– this post authored by Steven Hansen

The 29 April 2020 meeting statement presented the actions taken. This post covers the economic discussion during this FOMC meeting between the members. An interesting quote regarding economic uncertainty:

… Participants discussed several alternative scenarios with regard to the behavior of economic activity in the medium term that all seemed about equally likely. These scenarios differed in the assumed length of the pandemic and the consequent economic disruptions. On the one hand, a number of participants judged that there was a substantial likelihood of additional waves of outbreak in the near or medium term. In such scenarios, it was believed likely that there would be further economic disruptions, including additional periods of mandatory social distancing, greater supply chain dislocations, and a substantial number of business closures and loss of income; in total, such developments could lead to a protracted period of severely reduced economic activity. On the other hand, economic activity could recover more quickly if the pandemic subsided enough for households and businesses to become sufficiently confident to relax or modify social-distancing behaviors over the next several months.

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