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90% Probability Of Trump Victory In November

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Source: What Is That Whistling Sound

 Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts
President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.
Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.

My view:

The lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden and the chaos within the Democratic party should be detrimental to a Biden victory.  Further, as the contest grows closer, it is likely to become apparent to many independent voters that Biden has serious cognitive issues, certainly not a desirable trait to lead the most powerful nation on earth.  Indeed it makes one wonder why the push within the party for his candidacy.  Is he a place holder president if elected that will resign for “health reasons” so a foreordained candidate can step into the presidency?  Given the scheming within the political landscape, I view this as the probable motivation. 
Despite opinion polls to the contrary, my view is a Trump victory that will likely be the most contentious one in generations. 



Source: http://whatisthatwhistlingsound.blogspot.com/2020/07/90-probability-of-trump-victory-in.html



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