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The Lulling Effect and the Upcoming COVID19 Vaccine

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 Microeconomists define a lulling effect to take place when an intervention (such as taking a dose of a vaccine) or a safety regulation (such as child proof bottle caps or vehicle airbags)  convinces an individual that she is less exposed to risk.  Such individuals, who now believe that they face less risk per unit of activity, are implicitly being encouraged to take more risk.  Given that demand curves slope down, a reduction in the price of risk taking encourages people to take on more risk. If the demand curve is highly price sensitive, an unintended consequence of a safety measure could be to put more of the population at risk.

Thus, could an unintended consequence of the COVID19 vaccine be an increase in COVID cases as people who are vaccinated now feel that they are safe and they sharply increase their social interactions?  Given that we socialize in groups, this lulling effect could create a sharp increase in the infection rate.

Suppose that people who like to party are friends with other people who also like to party in groups.  Before the vaccine, they engaged in some self protection but if they are confident that the vaccine works and after months of lockdown; they will really want to party with each other and this is how a super-contagion cluster forms because of the vaccine.   

How does this “rebound effect” parameter affect who should get the early doses of the vaccine?


Source: http://greeneconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-lulling-effect-and-upcoming-covid19.html


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