Winter 2021 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter’s earnings.

The latest forecast for S&P 500 earnings in the first quarter of 2021 suggests a stronger rebound for earnings than the forecast from the Fall 2020 snapshot.

The chart shows two previous earnings recessions for the S&P 500, going back to 2014. It also indicates that 2020-Q4 marks the bottom of the coronavirus earnings recession, which looks like it will extend into the third quarter of 2021 before the S&P 500′s earnings per share recover to their pre-coronavirus recession level.

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 11 February 2021. Accessed 12 February 2021. (As a bonus feature, if you follow the link to the spreadsheet before his next update, you’ll find Howard’s photo of New York City’s 34th St. after a 17-inch snowfall in early February 2021 embedded within it!)