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U.S. Approaches Adult Herd Immunity

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Great chart from our friends at Strategas, one of the best research shops on the Street. 

It looks fairly clear, at least to us, the U.S. has put the pandemic in the rear view mirror and is now ready to fully reopen the economy.   

Recall our post in January, Is Peak COVID In?

Last April, GMM, using a simple exponential growth model, we said this, 

 

We didn’t get all the math right but, very sadly nailed the estimate of the final pandamic death toll.   We projected U.S. deaths would rise to 641k from the then level of 53.4k, which invited a week of beatdowns and hate mail. 

The final death toll is going to come in pretty close to our estimate, which is currently running around 601k.

History will write that many of the deaths could have been prevented and were the result of the country’s lack of leadership and toxic politics.  At the same, it was almost miraculous that a vaccine was created in less than a year.  Shameful but, at the same time thankful for the vaccine.  


Source: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/05/18/u-s-approaches-adult-herd-immunity/


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