The turning

When did it turn?

In the first few days of the campaign, it seems. Here we are three weeks out and the shift has been seismic. The Cons now lead. The PM was heckled into submission over the weekend. Jagmeet is hip-hoppin’ all over TikTok. And the issues have been clarified. Actually, it’s pretty much just one issue now. Houses.

In 2015 and 2019 the moisters flocked to the guy with the nice socks and hair, the shoulder tat and the I’m-not-Trump persona. Since then the kids have grown up, Trump’s gone, the virus changed everything and real estate costs 70% more than when Trudeau promised to make it more affordable. That cohort is gone.

So the key Millennial vote is bleeding right. The Gen Z cohort is bleeding left (because all children are socialists at birth, then hopefully grow out of it). Meanwhile the Libs have alienated other key groups as well.

Ugly deficits and debts scare Boomers heading into retirement because they’ve seen this movie before. Bay Street’s pissed over Justin’s pledge to raise taxes on banks and insurers by over 30% as well as take a misguided run at REITs. Realtors have now chimed in about the “massive government overstep” in their business as the Libs seek to tell owners how to sell their properties. Alberta and the oil & gas industry are virulently anti-carbon tax. Gone. Patriots who hated to see the nation’s flag at half-staff on July 1st and lament it is still down almost four months later want change and pride. And the tragic scenes at Kabul airport, with our allies and their families facing death while the PM talks about a “she-cession and she-covery” are transformative.

In short, six years of the Liberal regime may – the polls suggest – be coming to an end. Of course, Trudeau has also enraged the anti-vaxers. While largely nutters, they’re emblematic of a society which has become far more divided over the last few years. Owners and renters are at odds now. Boomers vs the Mills. Trudeau’s also managed to pit women against men plus Indigenous against non-natives. West is fighting East, the wealthy vs the rest, corps tussling with workers, even cops and citizens at loggerheads. He’s hammered everyone with allegations of systemic victimization, racism and sexism while openly indulging himself in ageism (exemplified by a new TFSA for those under 40).

As this pathetic blog has opined lately, our commonality is gone. Witness a widespread ‘Cancel Canada Day’ movement, the ripping down of statues of past and present monarchs, the unpunished burning of a dozen churches, the profligate destruction of public finances and the open political evisceration of our military and national police in the cause of social justice. None of this brings us together. Except now, in disgust it seems.

This blog has told you repeatedly what to expect if the current government is returned. Mr. Trudeau has pledged a fat increase in spending, refused to say if the budget will ever be in balance, forecast more massive deficits and has pledged higher taxes. Banks, insurers, social media companies, consumers of higher-priced goods, some real estate sellers and trusts are already in the crosshairs. Most analysts also expect more capital gains tax, additional income or sales taxes and a potential wealth or inheritance tax – since all this spending is unstainable without greater revenues. Already T2 has added more debt to Canada’s balance sheet than all the prime ministers who went before. It guarantees higher interest rates. And a fiscal crunch.

Finally, most of us, polls say, believe the election call frivolous, unnecessary during a pandemic and opportunistic. The only reason we’re voting is to give Justin Trudeau more power, for longer.

Well, guess what?

About the picture: “I must admit I do read your blog and I know people send in photos of their dogs,” writes Carly, the Big City realtor. “This is my dog Dex. He turned 15 on Friday! A real milestone for a pug beagle mix. I must say he’s been through a lot with me (and the ups and downs of the real estate market with me) and has survived being the dog of a real estate agent (late nights and working on the weekend). Born in Missouri, I picked him up from the airport at five months old ( one week after I moved into my first condo purchase at the ripe age of 23!). This is him waiting for a piece of cake last week during a dinner.”