Read the story here. Advertise at Before It's News here.
Profile image
By Global Macro Monitor
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views
Last hour:
Last 24 hours:

Are “Woke” Central Bankers Transitory?

% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

#CKStrong   Bullish on CK,  ANC > 1100!

Can anyone spot which Age was transitory?

Woke Central Bankers 

I have worked with — not as an employee but more an investor/informal advisor, and, at times, in an adversarial role — with many central banks during my career, including several that were in the beginning, middle, end, and post hyperinflation (see charts below).   

Of course, none, x/ the Fed, had the privilège exorbitant of controlling the world’s dominant reserve currency but all had to navigate an environment with heavy political and social pressures. Most of the high inflation central banks, engaged in non-transitory deficit monetization and money printing until all street cred was lost and the economy broke. Hyperinflation ensued.

In most cases, hyperinflation begins when demand for the local currency collapses.

We doubt that will be the case in the U.S. but if the Fed doesn’t get it right, and its a rapidly closing and small window –there will be pain. If the U.S. central bank caves again to political and social pressure when asset prices get rocked as monetary policy reverses next month, add the the “Age of High Inflation” to the above timeline.

Today’s “woke” market action priced that New Age.

We are looking at Israel’s hyperinflation as a model for our high inflation case x/ the worries over default.  Wait…hold that thought. 

We think a U.S. default, that is a blanket moratorium on Treasury debt payments, is a complete but useful delusion for the politicians.  A selective default, maybe, but doubtful, where the Treasury skips a payment on, say, debt held by the Fed.  Not sure about the legality, however.     

Which Period Of High Inflation Was Transitory?

Biggest Constraint On “Normalizing” Monetary Policy

It’s not rocket science but valuations, folks.

The U.S. stock market is now valued at over 200 percent of GDP versus the average valuation of 106 percent from 1996-2020 and over 40 percent above the extreme valuation of the bubble.

Three Steps And Stumble

We doubt they will be able to raise three times, and thus the end game will be inflation but not before a few deflation scares.  

We do get it’s all about the trade, “riding the gravy train as long as it lasts” as CK has done and is much wealthier than I for it, but come on, man, lets call the useful delusionary narratives for what they are, and we suspect they are gonna rock the wealth of the people, who not prepared and can at least afford it.   

What’s The Matter With The Supply Chain?

The fundamental problem in the supply chain is that it is both still reeling from the volatile shock to final demand and policymakers continue to over stimulate the global economy.  Moreover, the spike in the demand for transport services, both over sea and land, is now starting to cause micro supply shocks.

We will get the data on retail sales tomorrow, which we use as a proxy for global demand.  We suspect a miss as current levels are way over their skis.   

As the chart below illustrates, after the massive and unprecedented volatility in Q2 2020,  the level of retail sales in the U.S. is running 51 months ahead and 11.2 percent above its pre-COVID trend.

We’ll concede that some of the overshoot may just be catch-up from Q2 2020 collapse. We shall see.

Protect your blind side, folks. 

As always, we reserve the right to be wrong, and often are, but, do please, at least contemplate we could be right.  After all, we were laughed at and bitch slapped when we posted in early February that a 4 percent CPI was coming by mid-year and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a 5 percent print by year-end. Here we are.


Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world.

Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.

"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!

Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!

HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.

Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.

MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)

Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser!  Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!

Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.

Smart Meter Cover -  Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).

Report abuse


    Your Comments
    Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

    Load more ...




    Email this story
    Email this story

    If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

    If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.