The S&P 500 Rallies with the Arrival of 2021-Q4's Earnings Season

The arrival of earnings season with a strong showing for several large banks sparked a small rally for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX). The index’ trajectory has risen back to the middle of the redzone forecast range:

The S&P 500′s trajectory is consistent with the projections for investors focusing on either 2021-Q4 or 2022-Q1, which have largely merged over the last several weeks. Between the two, the information provided by the week’s news stream points to 2021-Q4 having the edge in drawing the focus of investors’ forward-looking attention, thanks to the arrival of its earnings season and the confirmation of the Federal Reserve’s plan to start tapering its purchases of U.S. government-issued securities in the next month.

Here’s the week’s market-moving news:

Monday, 11 October 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil settles up 1.5%; hits multi-year highs on surging demand

Fed minion says no way job market is stalling:

• San Francisco Fed’s Daly: Too soon to say job market ‘stalling’

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China rust-belt province warns of more shortages in energy crisis

Bigger inflation to finally develop in Japan?

• Japan households expect inflation to pick up – BOJ survey

ECB minion worried about higher inflation:

• ECB’s Knot warns investors of risks of higher inflation

Wall St ends choppy session lower on earnings jitters; financials down

Tuesday, 12 October 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil steadies as energy crunch stirs up volatility, recovery concerns
• U.S. job openings fall to a still-high 10.4 million in August

• U.S. quits scale record high, millions of job openings as labor market tightens

“There will be things that people can’t get,” at Christmas, White House warns

Fed minions post help wanted sign, want to start taper in November, and start coming clean on inflation:

• Boston Fed launches search for new president, hires exec. talent firm
• Fed policymakers hone in on November taper timeline
• Fed’s Bostic says pandemic pressures pose risks for long-term inflation expectations

• Fed’s Bostic Finally Admits It: Inflation Is Not Transitory, And It’s Getting Worse

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China’s export growth likely eased in Sept on electricity curbs: Reuters poll
• Chip shortage and power crunch hit China auto sales in ‘Golden September’

Bigger inflation developing all over:

• Energy crunch stokes inflation, economic recovery concerns
• Money markets ramp up global rate hike bets, add pressure on central banks
• Inflation jitters take toll on European stocks ahead of earnings
• Japan premier warns of negative impact on companies from weak yen

Central bank minions queuing up rate hikes to quell inflation, ECB minion in big trouble:

• S.Korea central bank holds rates, flags a hike in November
• UK jobs hit record high as Bank of England weighs up rate hike
• ECB policymaker Kazimir charged with bribery, denies wrongdoing

Wall Street closes lower on jitters ahead of earnings, Fed minutes

• Apple Tumbles After iPhone Production Goal Slashed On Chip Shortage

Wednesday, 13 October 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Instant View: U.S. consumer prices increase solidly in September
• Higher inflation squeezing U.S. consumers as food prices, rents accelerate
• U.S. Social Security benefits to rise by most since early ’80s
• Oil eases on profit taking, demand jitters; stays near highest in years

Fed minions ready to taper stimulus bond buys, test “inflation is good” message:

• Fed’s Bowman ‘very comfortable’ with November taper, sees inflation risks
• Fed lays out plan to reduce bond purchases, flags inflation worries

• Analysis-Inflation revival is a victory, not a defeat, for central banks

Bigger trouble developing in China, Eurozone:

• China’s growth seen slowing to 5.5% in 2022, modest policy easing expected: Reuters poll
• Exclusive-German institutes to slash growth outlook on bottlenecks-sources

Bigger inflation developing all over:

• Rising German inflation calls for ‘noticeable wage gains’, union chief says
• UK house price climb slows, homes shortage deepens – RICS

ECB minions told to rethink loose money policies contributing to inflation:

• Deutsche Bank CEO calls on ECB to rethink policy in light of inflation

S&P 500, Nasdaq rise with growth stocks; JPMorgan a drag

Thursday, 14 October 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Biden enlists Target, Walmart to fix bottlenecks threatening holiday sales
• U.S. weekly jobless claims fall below 300,000 in boost to labor market recovery
• Oil prices rise, as Saudis dismiss supply concerns as demand grows

Fed minions ready to taper and have their ethics reviewed!

• Fed, nearing bond-buying ‘taper,’ remains divided on inflation

• Fed should pursue faster taper, inflation levels “concerning” -Bullard

Exclusive-Fed bank chiefs, in letter to Senator Warren, pledge to comply with ethics review

Bigger inflation developing all over:

• Column: Global economy faces biggest headwind from inflation
• Argentina inflation spikes sharply despite battle to curb prices
• Singapore tightens monetary policy in surprise move as price pressures grow
• From beef bowls to coffee, cost surge squeezes Japan’s salaryman staples
• Spain September inflation at 13-year high on soaring energy prices
• China’s record factory gate inflation stokes policy dilemma

BOJ minion says MOAR STIMULUS FOREVER! ECB minion wants to stop stimulus:

• BOJ policymaker rules out stimulus withdrawal even after economy recovers
• Europe at risk of higher inflation; ECB’S PEPP should end in March: ECB’s Knot

Wall St ends up sharply as earnings, economic data lift optimism

• U.S. banks beat profit estimates on economic rebound, deals bonanza

Friday, 15 October 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices rise to three-year high on back of supply deficit forecasts
• U.S. banks see wealth management boom on borrowing, new assets
• Rising prices flatter U.S. retail sales; demand for goods remains strong
• U.S. business inventories rise solidly, but auto stocks fall
• Food, fuels lift U.S. import prices in September

China scrambling to get fossil fuels, Eurozone scrambling to hide fossil fuel inflation:

• Hungry for fuel, China looks to the U.S., Europe eyes relief plans
• Germany slashes energy surcharge to help consumers weather soaring prices

Bigger inflation developing all over:

• Shipping disruptions to keep coffee prices high for longer, say experts

Wall St tracks weekly gains on strong banks earnings, retail sales data

• Wall Street banks set to profit again when Fed withdraws pandemic stimulus

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