Are Wage Pressures Structural?
We vote both cyclical and structural.
When it rains, it pours. The COVID and Ukraine shock has ripped the veil from the “Wizard of Oz” economy. Follow the crypto brick road.
Deglobalization Cometh
Americans are beginning to experience what a world feels like as its moves toward autarky. You know, “let’s re-shore the supply chain” and the notion that erecting trade barriers will protect some American workers from foreign competition but punish all with higher inflation. Almost all structural disinflationary forces that have powered the global economy for the past 25 years are reversing.
All hope and bets are now placed on automation and Roberta the Robot.
We vote both cyclical and structural.
When it rains, it pours. The COVID and Ukraine shock has really ripped the veil from the “Wizard of Oz” economy. Follow the crypto brick road.
The West Has A Demographic Problem
The following chart illustrates the shrinking share of the U.S. population of prime-age workers — 25 to 54 year-olds — and the spiking senior population.
We never really internalized the demographic-deflation argument, and we believe just the opposite.
Fewer productive workers shift the long-term aggregate supply left, which causes higher inflation and slower potential economic growth.
Japan’s Pensioners Wiped Out After Bubble Burst
We believe Japan is a terrible example, as the savings and pensions of their aging population were obliterated after the country’s asset bubble burst on New Year’s Eve 1989,
[More than thirty years on from its all-time high, the Nikkei Stock Average is still languishing about 40% below the peak of 38,915 scaled on Dec. 29, 1989. The Japanese stock market’s uphill climb to regain lost ground is the longest in the history of any major economy.
The bursting of Japan’s wild asset-price bubble left a nation of disillusioned and embittered individual investors. – Nikkei Asia
The Nikkei index still sits 33 percent below its peak of over 32 years ago.
Imagine the demand destruction of a generation of American retirees if the S&P500 was at the Nikkei equivalent of 2785 in 2054. Simply unfathomable!
We are still working on our labor market piece, which we hope to post on Memorial Day, and are not ready to submit the above to a peer-reviewed economic journal. Not yet.
Stay tuned.
Source: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2022/05/28/are-wage-pressures-structural/
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).