The dribble

Days ago a prescient, omniscient, infallible blog told you this: neither Biden nor Trump will be on the ballot in America two years hence. The slugfest of the 80-year-olds will be kaput. On Wednesday, stock markets were digesting this and investors moping around after the Red Wave turned into a pinkish dribble.

Biden is old, unpopular, presides over the worst bout of inflation in four decades and is way too lefty and woke for many. The Dems (like our Libs) have been hijacked by ‘progressives’ who care more about inclusivity and gender politics than mortgage rates and gas prices. Besides, spending seems out of control and resulting high rates are crashing the tech sector.

He can’t say it now, but 46 will be a one-term guy.

As for Trump, the midterms on Tuesday were a disaster. Despite economic malaise, there was no Republican romp. The 2020 election deniers got little traction. Younger voters turned out to support pro-choice candidates and repudiate Trump’s stacked Supreme Court. Oz was punted. There was no groundswell of MAGA. The polarization of public life kept the Trump crazies contained in their own metaverse, too extreme in their views for the mainstream. It looks like democracy worked this time.

As for 45, his credibility is damaged and his influence diminished. Meanwhile rival Ron DeSantis romped to victory in Florida, proving he can win big and paving the way for his 2024 bid for the Republican nomination. The guy outpaced his party’s national performance and flipped strongholds in Florida. He’s a Navy vet, graduate of Harvard and Yale, a lawyer with government experience. And he’s 44. No wonder Trump took some special time a few days ago to publicly insult him.

What’s all this mean?

Well, equity markets shed a few hundred points when the election results became clear. Investors had been betting on a clearly-Republican Congress with a Democratic president and a gridlocked government that would contain spending. That looks unlikely. But inconsequential.

There’s a lot else going on at the moment, as you know. Tesla has lost half its value. Zuckerberg is laying off 11,000 people at Meta. Redin has shed 90% of its value as the American real estate market craters. High rates are hurting technology companies across the board. The insane zero-Covid policy in China shuttered an Apple megafactory with 200,000 workers.

The election changes none of that. Nor the battle with inflation, nor the schedule of interest rate increases between now and the Spring. The projection in our Bay Street world remains the same: 2023 will look entirely different from this drab year. Stay invested. You will not be disappointed.

The best news out of America is simple: the middle is alive.

There are millions of voters who apparently reject the burn-it-all-down extremism that MAGA, Qanon and 45 represent. A robust voter turnout shows citizens still have faith in the democratic system. As Trump’s reach is diminished his presidential announcement on Tuesday means two years of anger, insults, derision and fading influence lie ahead. Some old guys just don’t know when to quit.

Oh, and did you hear that Putin (age 70) has ordered his invading, occupying, losing troops out of a key Ukraine city that was captured months ago? And is too shamed and shunned to attend next week’s G-20 meeting?

There is hope, even in a volatile time. Nothing about the past few years has been normal. We’re in a swirl of change dealing with the aftermath of pandemic and failed leadership, economic transition plus an epic reallocation of resources into stuff. When too many folks spend their lives peering into their own navels, despots can advance.

This is a good day.

About the photo: “This is a photo of our latest, Juniper,” writes Pete. “Border collie x Aussie, from a sheep farm. Wicked smart. A bit of a dragon, but he’s just 2-1/2 and still a teenager. He’s in the running for best dog ever.”